Westward shift in Chinese air pollution

In contrast to the significant decrease in PM2.5 levels observed in China's cities from 2014 to 2022, making it the country with the fastest drop among all nations, western regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang have seen a substantial increase in PM2.5 levels compared to a year earlier.

This upturn in air pollution is primarily due to increased output from energy-intensive industries like steel, non-ferrous metals, and coal-to-chemical processing in the region. Data from early 2025 shows significant year-on-year growth in western China’s production of crude steel (6%), pig iron (11%), and non-ferrous metals (4%), contrasting with a decrease in these industries in eastern China.

While coal and thermal power’s share in electricity production has declined overall, western China has experienced the largest drop. However, some provinces with abundant renewable energy resources like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have expanded coal power use faster than clean energy, partially offsetting gains from the energy transition.

The State Council announced an employment-first strategy in 2024, aiming to steer capital-, technology- and labour-intensive industries into the central and western regions. This could potentially explain the industrial expansion in these areas.

Despite the western region’s relatively lower industrial development level and sparser population, the recent industrial expansion and energy consumption patterns have caused a notable increase in air pollution levels. Practices like crop stubble burning and firework displays during national festivals further contribute to seasonal spikes in pollution.

Yue Hao, a senior expert at State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company, noted that grid planning for western China currently focuses on large-scale outbound transmission. This could potentially address the energy supply issues in the region, but more emphasis needs to be placed on clean energy adoption to combat the rising air pollution.

Xinjiang leads nationally in terms of the growing capacity of its coal-to-chemical sector, having attracted nearly CNY 500 billion (US$70 billion) of investment. Achieving the central government's target for lowering the average annual PM2.5 level to less than 25 μg/m3 by 2035 would necessitate a fall of more than 10% against the national levels seen in 2024.

In 2022, nearly three-quarters of China's cities had average PM2.5 levels below the national standard limit. However, the first quarter of 2025 saw overall air quality improve in eastern China, but pollution rose in provinces to the south and west of the country.

The national air pollution action plan issued in 2013 focused on the eastern parts of the country, setting PM2.5 targets for cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the deltas of the Yangtze and Pearl rivers. With the recent rise in air pollution in western China, it is crucial to expand the scope of future air quality improvement plans to include these regions.

References: [1] China Dialogue. (2025). Western China’s air pollution problem worsens amid industrial expansion. Retrieved from https://www.chinadialogue.net/business-economics/2025/06/01/western-chinas-air-pollution-problem-worsens-amid-industrial-expansion

[2] South China Morning Post. (2025). China’s western regions see rise in air pollution despite overall improvement. Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3158528/chinas-western-regions-see-rise-air-pollution-despite-overall

[3] Greenpeace East Asia. (2025). Western China’s air pollution crisis: Causes and solutions. Retrieved from https://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/en/campaigns/energy/coal/western-chinas-air-pollution-crisis-causes-and-solutions/

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