Currency exchange rates at an all-time low: Dollar now valued at mere three rubles following recent trading sessions
Belarus Faces Persistent Trade Deficit Amid Global Currency Shifts
Belarus is currently grappling with a persistent foreign trade deficit, as the trade deficit in goods reached approximately $3.2 billion for the first half of 2025, marking the ninth consecutive month of negative balance in goods trade.
According to recent data, Belarus exported approximately $19 billion worth of goods, while imports rose to around $22.2 billion. Exports have seen a decline of 3.7% year-on-year, while imports have increased by 3.3%. For the first five months of 2025, Belarus' foreign trade in goods and services totaled about $39.84 billion, up 1.9% year on year.
The trade deficit is particularly pronounced due to a shrinking of exports to "far arc" countries (down 13.5%) and growing imports (up 9%) from these regions, despite diplomatic efforts. Although Belarus maintains a positive trade balance with CIS countries, especially Russia, the pace of growth here is slowing due to Russian monetary tightening, weak consumer demand, and competition from Chinese imports.
The Belarusian ruble is managed with centralized control by the National Bank of Belarus, and historical data show significant fluctuations and devaluations over the last decade. The dollar's value surpassed Br3 again, while the euro fell at the end of the week, and as of August 6, the euro's exchange rate was Br3.456. Other foreign currencies, including the Chinese yuan, have also strengthened against the Belarusian ruble.
In the global currency context, trends indicate that the US dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency is gradually decreasing, driven by rising influence of BRICS+ countries. This multipolar currency era trend signifies that Belarus, aligned more closely to Russia and other Eurasian partners, may be influenced by shifts away from USD dominance, impacting exchange mechanisms and trade settlements indirectly.
In June alone, the negative trade balance grew by nearly $600 million, while imports increased by 3.3% compared to the first half of 2024. The total amount is 0.02% less than the same period in 2024. The gap between exports and imports is widening, and the euro rose on Monday.
| Aspect | Status / Trend (2025) | |-----------------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | Foreign Trade Balance | Deficit persisting, $3.2B deficit in H1 2025; trade deficit around $778M Jan-May 2025[1][5] | | Export Trend | Slight growth overall (0.4%) Jan-May 2025; Decline (-3.7%) H1 2025 in goods only[1][5] | | Import Trend | Rising imports (+3.3% Jan-May 2025; +3.3% H1 2025)[1][5] | | Exchange Rate Control | Centralized by National Bank of Belarus; history of significant devaluations[2] | | Global Currency Trends| US Dollar dominance declining; BRICS+ influence rising, may affect Belarus indirectly[4] |
The persistent trade deficit in Belarus, as seen in the first half of 2025, might necessitate a careful review of its financing strategies due to the increasing imports and stagnating exports. This is particularly evident when considering the shrinking of exports to "far arc" countries and the growing imports from these regions.
Given the global currency trends indicating the slow decline of the US Dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency, it could be prudent for the Belarusian government to consider diversifying its financial sources and strengthening economic ties with the BRICS+ countries to mitigate potential risks arising from currency shifts and indirect impacts on exchange mechanisms and trade settlements.
