Artificial intelligence unit Ai-95 market value sets new high at 77,000 rubles per ton for the first time.
Russia is currently grappling with historically high fuel prices, with the benchmark Ai-95 petrol price surpassing 80,000 roubles (approximately $1,000 USD) per ton for the first time in history as of August 8, 2025[1].
In late July 2025, the Russian government imposed a complete ban on petrol exports to stabilize domestic supply. Since this ban, Ai-95 petrol prices have increased by about 7.2%, reflecting ongoing market volatility despite this intervention[1][3].
The price surge is also driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on major Russian oil refineries in early August 2025, which damaged facilities processing approximately 40,000 tons of crude per day. Repairs could take from one to six months, further constraining supply[3].
The price spike is not only linked to export restrictions and attack damages but also to structural vulnerabilities in Russia's refining sector, including limited refining redundancy, insufficient strategic reserves, and high concentration of capacity at vulnerable sites[2].
Analysts expect fuel prices in Russia to remain elevated at least until the fall of 2025, potentially into early 2026, as refinery repairs continue and seasonal demand remains high. This suggests further inflationary pressure on sectors reliant on fuel like transport and logistics[2].
The Kremlin may consider additional government interventions beyond export bans, such as price controls, mandatory production quotas, or subsidies, to mitigate the political risks of persistent high fuel prices[2].
Market projections indicate Russian gasoline prices may slightly increase through 2026 and 2027, trending around 0.82-0.85 USD/liter, continuing the upward trend from current highs[4].
Other key developments include a decrease in jet fuel by 4.13% to 67,197 thousand rubles per ton on August 4th, and an increase in Premium-95 fuel by 1.08% and reaching a historical high of 77,001 thousand rubles per ton on the same day[1].
The price of AI-92 fuel increased by 1.16% to 66,642 thousand rubles per ton on August 4th, but did not surpass its previous historical maximum. Summer diesel fuel increased by 0.5% to 58,134 thousand rubles per ton on the same day.
The government extended the gasoline export restriction until December 31, 2024, but lifted it early for oil product producers on November 30, 2024. The price of Mazut decreased by 0.02% to 22,956 thousand rubles per ton on August 4th[1].
In summary, the historical highs in Russian fuel prices in 2025 result from a combination of government export bans, war-related refinery damage, and structural market weaknesses, with price stabilization unlikely until refinery capacity is restored and additional policy measures are possibly enacted[1][2][3][5]. The FAS (Federal Antimonopoly Service) benchmark adjustments and state interventions will be key to managing future fuel price volatility.
Key recent facts:
| Event/Factor | Impact on Fuel Prices | |-----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------| | Export ban on petrol (July 2025) | Price surge, +7.2% since ban started[1][3] | | Ukrainian drone attacks (Aug 2025)| Damage to refineries, supply constraints[3] | | Structural vulnerabilities | Limited reserves, concentration risk[2] | | Extended refinery repairs | Prolonged supply squeeze through late 2025[2] | | Forecasted price trend (2026-27) | Rise to ~0.82-0.85 USD/liter[4] |
This comprehensive situation forms the context for any upcoming FAS benchmark pricing or policy changes aimed at controlling the fuel market in Russia.
In the context of Russia's current fuel crisis, the escalating Ai-95 petrol prices are not only a result of government export bans and refinery damages from Ukrainian drone attacks, but also due to structural vulnerabilities within the Russian refining industry, such as limited refining redundancy and insufficient strategic reserves. Furthermore, analysts anticipate fuel prices in Russia to remain elevated, exerting inflationary pressure on sectors like transport and logistics, potentially necessitating additional government interventions like price controls or subsidies to mitigate political risks.
