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Wheat prices hit rock bottom in 2025 despite a fleeting rebound

A brief November surge couldn’t save wheat from its worst year since 2022. Will 2026 bring relief—or deeper losses for farmers?

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2 min read
In this image I can see grass and plants. This image is taken during a day may be in a farm.
In this image I can see grass and plants. This image is taken during a day may be in a farm.

Wheat prices hit rock bottom in 2025 despite a fleeting rebound

Wheat prices have struggled in 2025, with CBOT futures hitting a low of $4.92 per bushel in October. A recent rally pushed them up by 14.4%, but long-term trends remain weak. Analysts warn that poor weather and oversupply could keep pressure on the stock market for months to come.

CBOT wheat futures fell steadily through 2025, dropping 7.89% in the first nine months alone. By September 30, prices settled at $5.08 per bushel, down 3.92% from the previous quarter. The decline continued into October, where futures reached a low of $4.9225 on October 14 before rebounding to over $5.60 by mid-November.

The November WASDE report added to the bearish outlook, showing higher U.S. and global wheat supplies. Ending stocks rose, further weighing on the stock market. Jake Hanely, Managing Director of Teucrium ETFs, confirmed that weak fundamentals still dominate the market, despite the recent price bounce.

Soybean futures have outperformed wheat this year, rallying 23.5% since December 2024. Meanwhile, wheat remains 63.9% below its March 2022 peak. Producers now face little incentive to plant, as prices below $5 per bushel fail to cover costs. If demand holds or grows, a drop in 2026 output could eventually push the stock market higher.

Weather will play a key role in next year’s crop. Forecasts suggest heat and moisture stress may hurt yields in major growing regions. Recent years have already seen warmer temperatures and lower rainfall, reducing harvests in some areas.

The Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) tracks three CBOT soft red winter wheat futures contracts, excluding the nearest expiry. With over $119 million in assets, it trades more than 134,000 shares daily. Investors pay a 0.83% management fee to access the fund.

Wheat prices remain under pressure, despite a brief November recovery. If weather conditions worsen or planting declines, supplies could tighten by 2026. For now, oversupply and weak demand continue to shape the stock market’s direction.

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