Weekly Economic Updates: Pending Reports and Outcomes from Kiplinger's Calendar
News Article: Economic Outlook for the Final Week of July 2023 Shaped by Key Indicators
The economic landscape in the final week of July 2023 was marked by keen interest in several key indicators, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, existing home sales data, and S&P Global's flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs).
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech was highly anticipated as a major influence on expectations about U.S. monetary policy. Powell’s remarks were scrutinized for any signals regarding future interest rate moves, particularly with market participants hoping for clarity on whether the Fed would pause rate hikes or begin easing.
- Existing home sales data, typically an indicator of consumer confidence and housing market health, was closely watched to gauge whether the housing market was cooling due to higher borrowing costs or stabilizing, which would influence overall economic forecasts.
- S&P Global’s flash PMIs for manufacturing and services offered an early snapshot of economic activity and business confidence. Movements in these indexes help predict GDP trends: expansion if above 50, contraction if below.
The combined data points would shape expectations of whether inflation pressures were easing, economic growth was slowing or stabilizing, and what the Fed’s next steps might be in July 2023.
During that week, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales was reported at 3.93 million, a decrease from the forecasted 4.01 million. The median sales price for existing homes rose 2% to an all-time high of $435,300 in June. High mortgage rates were causing home sales to remain at cyclical lows, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
On Wednesday, July 23, existing home sales were expected to slip due to high housing prices. However, specific July 2023 figures for existing home sales are not available in the search results.
S&P Global Flash Services PMI for July was 55.2%, higher than the forecasted 53.0%. The S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI for July was 49.5%, lower than the forecasted 52.7%. These PMIs provided early indications of economic momentum and business confidence.
The Conference Board's Leading Indicators Index for June was forecasted to decrease by 0.2%, but the actual data has not been released yet. This index, released at 10 am (Eastern Time), would offer insights into the broader economic outlook.
Weekly jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were 217,000, lower than the forecasted 227,000. This data point suggested a robust labour market, which could help mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs on consumer spending.
Overall, macroeconomic data were "broadly supportive," according to Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. Investors responded positively to robust economic indicators and earnings reports, indicating continued resilience in U.S. consumer spending.
Market participants will be tuned into Tuesday morning’s appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at a banking conference in Washington, D.C., as well as the release of the Conference Board's Leading Indicators Index and the latest existing home sales data for a comprehensive understanding of the economic outlook in July 2023.
- Investors responded positively to robust economic indicators and earnings reports, indicating continued resilience in U.S. consumer spending, suggesting that trading activities may be influenced by the stability and growth in the economy.
- The combined data points, such as the existing home sales, S&P Global’s flash PMIs, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, significantly impact finance decisions, particularly in regards to investing and predictions about the Fed’s next steps in July 2023.
