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Voluntary Carbon Market Surges as 11,500 Firms Chase 281M Credits Annually

Aviation and energy giants are fueling a $2.27B carbon credit boom—but will supply keep up? New data reveals the race for high-quality offsets.

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2 min read
The image shows a graph depicting the metric tons of carbon per person in developing countries. The...
The image shows a graph depicting the metric tons of carbon per person in developing countries. The graph is accompanied by text that provides further information about the data.

Voluntary Carbon Market Surges as 11,500 Firms Chase 281M Credits Annually

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) has expanded rapidly over the last five years, with technology, telecommunications, and energy sectors driving most of the growth. New data from AlliedOffsets shows that demand for carbon credits is set to rise sharply, with over 11,500 companies expected to seek 281 million credits annually. The market is also shifting towards higher-quality credits as businesses prepare for stricter climate regulations.

In 2025, the VCM experienced a drop in both retirements and new credit issuances, yet spending and average prices per credit climbed. Companies spent around $2.27 billion yearly, with aviation and energy firms leading the way. Forward contracts surged, with over $12 billion in agreements signed, indicating a push to secure future supplies of reliable credits.

The market now tracks over 36,000 projects and 28,000 buyers, covering billions of tons of carbon. AlliedOffsets' Likelihood to Buy model predicts the next wave of buyers by analysing factors like emissions reduction potential, data centre usage, and net-zero commitments. The U.S., China, UK, France, Germany, and Brazil are expected to dominate demand.

Regulatory pressures are also shaping the market. The CORSIA scheme will require airlines from ICAO member states—including the U.S., EU, and China—to offset CO₂ emissions for most international flights from 2027, following a voluntary phase from 2024 to 2026. Meanwhile, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) continues to push energy-intensive industries, such as airlines and power companies, to buy allowances for emissions beyond free allocations.

Germany's THG-Quote is another key driver, mandating fuel suppliers to increase biofuel quotas to 2.5% by 2034. This policy is already influencing energy firms, with market effects becoming clearer between 2025 and 2027.

As demand grows, supply constraints in forestry and land-use projects are anticipated. Engineered carbon removals and industrial projects are gaining traction as alternatives. Companies now prioritise credits with robust monitoring and proven climate benefits.

The VCM is evolving under stricter regulations and rising corporate demand. With aviation, energy, and technology sectors leading spending, the focus on high-quality credits is expected to intensify. Forward contracts and regulatory schemes like CORSIA and the THG-Quote will further shape the market's direction in the coming years.

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