Trump's Long Leverage on Putin: EU's Sanctions Ride on U.S. Goodwill
Trump is actively considering or implementing economic penalties against Putin.
The latest EU sanctions intend to strangle Moscow's economy, but they're Chihuahuas on a leash held by President Trump. If ol' POTUS decides to tug the leash, he could unravel the entire package, with his buddy in the Brussels Council lending a helping hand.
So what's the point of an oil price cap if Putin's already been underpaying for oil, you ask? And the EU did too, presenting a proposal to drop the price cap from $60 to $45 a barrel. It's a part of their 18th sanctions package against the big, bad Kremlin. But, to secure a new cape, they gotta coordinate with the G7 crew next Sunday, including our volatile friend-President, Donald Trump.
Trump might just bite. He thinks low oil prices could rush the end of Putin's war in Ukraine. Remember his trade policies? They helped put a leash on the global economy, dragging oil prices down. But will Uncle Donnie beef up the pressure on Putin? It's an open question.
Politics. Let's Put a Cap on Putin's Oil.
As for the overall impact of the West's sanctions regime, Trump's got the brawnier arm. He can slap secondary sanctions on companies trading with Russia. The EU's hands are tied by legal constraints, such as breaching international law and other nations' sovereignty.
BYE-BYE, USA, TO THE WORLD?
The stateside sanctions are up for debate. More than 80 out of 100 Senators have thrown their support behind a bill proposed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. According to media gossip, Trump ain't entirely against it but has been putting the brakes on, trying to weaken the bill. The draft calls for tariffs of 500% on any country buying Russian energy. That's a hefty price to pay and could hurt America's own businesses. And even Graham himself seemed to get it, proposing a pass for countries aiding Ukraine.
Economy. Rare Earths: Amigos United - But Not for Long?
Still, Graham's sanctions would sever friendships with India and China, the largest juggernauts of Russian oil. The tariff plan could bring Chinese and Indian trade to a halt. The timing couldn't be worse, considering China and the US are all fuzzy-feeling over their recent trade truce. Rerrun negotiators from both countries have agreed on a pact, pending Trump and Xi Jinping's approval.
"I think it's unlikely that we'll see extremely harsh secondary sanctions against Russian oil buyers right now, with the US and China's amigos phase," says Alexandra Prokopenko, an expert on Russian economic policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Prokopenko told ntv.de that even the threat of secondary sanctions against Indian or Chinese firms could disrupt all the encouraging developments in their relationship.
Politics. Tariffs & Commodities: Trump's Amigo agreement
For now, EU is left facing the music with its primary sanctions. The proposed 18th package includes the reduced oil price cap, targeting 77 more Russian tankers, 22 more banks, and banning the Nord Stream gas pipelines. The German government put the kibosh on gas transit after the war, but rumors linger that gas might flow again as part of an agreement between the US and Russia to call off the war. Putin's der POTUS fang dahn!
ORBAN'S WILDCARD
If rumors are true, ol' POTUS will expect a say in the pipeline peacemaking. The powwows in Brussels won't include Trump, but he could pull a last-minute Hail Mary: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has bro-cations with Trump. The two have been hitting the links at Mar-a-Lago. In January, Orban threatened vetoing the extension of existing sanctions, claiming Trump's return to the White House.
Orban's besties with Putin too, having shared a hearty handshake across cameras. Time and again, Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico have threatened to block decisions on sanctions packages. Whispers say Orban's following Trump's orders. Maybe the whole sanctions package goes down if Trump waves a no.
Politics. Bluff Called? Merz and Macron's Sanctions Threat.Orban's also got good vibes with Putin, havin' given him a big ol' handshake on camera. He and his buddy Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico are no strangers to blocking sanctions packages. According to the grapevine, Orban's been on Trump's wavelength on this matter. Rumor has it that Trump might squash the entire package with a thumb down.
- The European Union's sanctions against Russia, akin to small dogs on a leash, are largely dependent on President Trump's goodwill, as he holds the power to unravel the whole package if he decides to tighten the leash.
- In the realm of politics, the West's sanctions regime, while impactful, pales in comparison to the brute force wielded by President Trump, who can impose secondary sanctions on companies trading with Russia, a move that is legally challenging for the EU.
- In the global trade scene, the proposed sanctions by Senator Lindsey Graham, if implemented, could disrupt the emerging trade truce between China and the US, given the proposed tariffs of 500% on any country buying Russian energy, which could potentially harm America's own businesses and backfire on Trump's 'amigo agreement' with Xi Jinping.
