Titled "The Austrian Machine Fuels Putin's Aggressive Conflict," here's the revised version:
Amidst the significant losses in Ukraine, Russia's military might is facing a potential shortage in supplies, not just for missiles and cruise missiles, but also for tanks and guns. The necessity for Western technology to keep their war machine operating is football-like in its precision, with each blow to the enemy's forces requiring a new barrel for their guns and tanks.
In the heart of Volgograd, a city steeped in history, the factory "Titan-Barrikaden" is forging the very components that punctuate the Ukrainian landscape with devastation - their gun barrels. TheLofty hammers strike rhythmically, shaping, stretching, and hardening the blank metal into the deadly weapons of war, while memories of a bygone era whisper from the memorial walls outside.
These gun barrels, once fired against the Ukrainian forces, tire and succumb to wear and tear, often lost or destroyed long before their retirement. As reported by open-source analysts, Russia's losses are staggering: an estimated 3,700 tanks and around 1,300 artillery systems hobbled or destroyed since the conflict began. The Ukrainians estimate over 15,000 destroyed guns.
Radial forges, the very machines responsible for replenishing these worn-out barrels, are integral components in the war of aggression. However, the scarcity of these machines in Russia may soon become a crushing bottleneck for its war machine. The machines responsible for generating the lifeline for its arsenal - gun barrels - are currently absent in Russia, barring a few that came from the Western world.
Among these, the Austrian machine builder GFM has built a significant portion of the world's radial forges, maintaining its strategical monopoly. In a 2022 report, Marc De Vore of the University of St. Andrews and Alexander Mertens of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy predicted that, given the current loss rate, Russia will likely exhaust its gun barrels by 2025.
The situation in Russia is dire. With the few remaining factories capable of radical forging, the production capacity is non-existent compared to the loss rate. The machine specifications require major investments and the country may not have the alternative options available, especially when considering the difficulty of producing new machines without Western technology.
As Russia scrambles for solutions, China is the most probable alternative to save their faltering war machine. While China has maintained a healthy relationship with GFM, as it is a critical supplier for the Chinese automotive industry, the prospect of transferring the technology and machines to Moscow is a delicate question that both countries must navigate.
While it is known that Russia had stockpiled ammunition prior to the conflict, the strained loss rate might pose a significant predicament to the Kremlin. As British and US military experts have suggested, Russia might potentially exhaust its stockpiles of cannon barrels in the near future. Being heavily dependent on the West for critical technology, Moscow may have to resort to desperate measures to maintain its overwhelming offensive power.
Crucially, Russia has historically smuggled technological components from the Western world, and this has not been an exception for gun barrels. Between 1967 and 1983, GFM delivered at least two dozen radial forges to the Soviet Union, according to declassified CIA reports and GFM's own admission. However, the mists of time have obscured the fate of these machines, and the complications of sanctions and smuggling have added an additional layer of uncertainty.
In the end, it remains to be seen how Russia can manage this delicate balancing act between its desperate need for new radical forging machines and its complicated relationship with Western technology and sanctions. One thing is certain: Russia's decision to rely on external sources for critical warfare technology may come back to haunt them as they strive to maintain the iron grip of their domestic manufacturing sector.
The economy of Russia is significantly impacted by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as the scarcity of Western technology, including radial forges, necessary for producing gun barrels, poses a threat to their war machine. Without sufficient radial forges, Russia may face a crushing bottleneck in replenishing worn-out barrels, potentially exhausting its supply by 2025.
