Struggling Purchases of Bullish Export Operations in Corn Sector
Thursday Struggle for Corn Market
Steering clear of a stronger day, the corn market finds itself in a tough spot, contrary to this morning's record-breaking export business. The Midday sees contracts dropping 3 to 5 cents. Overnight, there were 18 deliveries issued against May futures. The recent CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price slips 5 cents to $4.14 1/2.
Good news for exporters, as USDA clocks in private export sales of 205,000 MT to Mexico this morning (40,000 for 2024/25 and 165,000 MT for 2025/26), with another 115,000 MT sold to unspecified destinations for old crop.
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This week's export sales data points to a staggering 1.662 MMT of old crop corn sales in the week ending May 1, surpassing analyst forecasts between 0.7 to 1.4 MM. The peak in corn sales for the past 19 weeks and an 87% increase over the same week last year. Japan cracks the buyer's list with a 338,500 MT order, followed by Taiwan (283,400 MT) and Spain (240,500 MT). New crop sales round up to 18,000 MT, anticipated within the expected range of 0 to 300,000 MT.
Anticipating Monday's WASDE report, analysts predict a slash of 22 million bushels in US carryout to 1.443 billion bushels for old crop, with new crop pegged at 2.02 bbu in USDA's first release.
Brazil managed to export a paltry 178,347 MT of corn during April, marking a 79.53% decrease from the month before but exceeding the same month's figure in 2024.
Overnight, South Korean importers scooped up 137,000 MT of corn.
May 25 Corn trades at $4.35 3/4, shedding 5 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash clocks in at $4.14 1/2, down 5 cents,
Jul 25 Corn stands at $4.44 1/4, sliding 5 cents,
Dec 25 Corn settles at $4.37, losing 3 3/4 cents,
New Crop Cash lands at $3.95 3/4, shedding 4 1/2 cents,
On the publication date, Austin Schroeder had no direct or indirect positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information relayed is solely for informational purposes. For further details, please refer to our Disclosure Policy here.
Insights:- The cash corn market may be weaker due to ongoing price volatility, supply and demand dynamics, export business contrasting with overall market sentiment, wider market conditions, and weather and production concerns.- Cash corn prices are sensitive to shifts in futures contracts and the spread between old and new crop contracts.- Broader market conditions, like global economic factors and competing grain markets, can impact corn prices.- Weather concerns during the U.S. corn planting season can lead to price volatility and weaken cash prices.
- In stark contrast to the daily export business, the cash corn market is experiencing a downturn, as indicated by the drop of 5 cents in the recent CmdtyView national average.
- An estimated 87% increase in corn sales is observed over the same week last year, with 1.662 MMT of old crop corn sales estimated in the week ending May 1, exceeding analyst forecasts.
- The financial sector is keenly watching futures contracts, as analysts anticipate a potential decrease of 22 million bushels in US carryout for old crop, based on the upcoming WASDE report.
