Strategic Analysis Heat Map - April 2023 by Kettera
In the world of global macro trading, 2025 has been a year of significant performance variations across different asset classes. Metals, especially gold, have emerged as the top-performing major asset classes, supported by factors such as weak US Treasury yields, expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong central bank and institutional demand [1][2].
Metals, including gold, silver, and copper, maintained upward trends in the first half of 2025, while oil prices declined [2]. Although commodities as a whole had modest returns with some volatility (-2.18% quarterly but +5.20% year-to-date), metals stood out within that group [2].
Discretionary macro managers reaped gains in Q2 2025 primarily from strategies exploiting yield curve steepening and receiver positions in US and EU fixed income markets, alongside a short USD bias versus the euro. This suggests that fixed income markets and currency plays also contributed strongly to discretionary macro performance [4].
Systematic trend followers, on the other hand, benefited from persistent trending moves in metals (gold, silver, copper) and carry trades in fixed income curves. However, agricultural commodities showed less pronounced performance compared to these more dominant sectors [4].
Here's a summary of the performance highlights for some key asset classes in 2025 (up to Q2):
| Asset Class | Performance Highlights 2025 (up to Q2) | |-------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | Metals (esp. gold) | Surged amid macro uncertainty, rate cut expectations, central bank buying; top-performing major asset class[1][2] | | Systematic Trend | Benefited from curve steepeners/receivers in fixed income and currency trends like short USD bias[4] | | Agricultural Commodities | Moderate performance, less dominant than metals; commodities down slightly in Q2 but positive YTD[2] | | Energies (Oil) | Declined during the year despite metals strength[2] |
For global macro specialists focusing on discretionary macro and systematic trend strategies, metals—especially gold and related precious metals—were the top performers in 2025 so far. Agricultural commodities and energy showed more mixed or subdued performance relative to metals and fixed income-based strategies.
In April, discretionary global macro managers saw varying results, with better-performing programs taking positions in commodities, currencies, and equities. The "style baskets" mentioned in this article are research tools created by Kettera for analysis and comparison purposes, not investible products or index products [3].
Medium-term programs had the most success, while shorter-term programs performed poorly, and longer-term strategies decently. Less successful programs were found in choppy fixed income markets, such as longer-term bonds and short-dated rates [3].
The style basket for a class is created from monthly returns (net of fees) of programs either currently or formerly on Hydra, or under review with an expectation of being added to Hydra [3]. It's important to note that the views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of AlphaWeek or its publisher, The Sortino Group [5].
References:
[1] Gold surges as investors seek safe haven amid global uncertainty
[2] Commodities: Performance Highlights 2025 (up to Q2)
[3] Kettera's Style Baskets: A Research Tool for Hedge Fund Analysis
[4] Discretionary Macro Managers: Q2 2025 Performance Insights
[5] The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of AlphaWeek or its publisher, The Sortino Group.
Investors focused on discretionary macro and systematic trend strategies found metals, particularly gold and related precious metals, to be the top-performing asset classes in 2025, outperforming agricultural commodities and energy. This surge in metals was primarily due to macro uncertainty, rate cut expectations, central bank buying, and the strength of these asset classes throughout the first half of the year [1][2]. Moreover, systematic trend followers benefited significantly from persistent trending moves in these metals and carry trades in fixed income curves [4].
