Soybean trades experience Tuesday setbacks despite enhanced ratings
In the soybean market, as of late July 2025, the outlook for the upcoming August 25 is characterised by a complex balance of factors. Soybean oil prices are expected to remain weak or decline, while soybean bean prices show modest upside potential, remaining sensitive to weather and geopolitical developments.
Soybean prices have stayed above $10.00 per bushel in Chicago throughout 2025, with mild volatility linked to U.S.–China trade tensions and biofuel policy developments. The 2025/26 season-average soybean price is projected to be slightly higher than the 2024/25 average, supported by demand from Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for biodiesel and lower planted acres in the U.S.
The August 2025 soybean futures contract is priced about 7 cents above September 2025, reflecting a neutral to mildly positive demand outlook. However, the November 2025 contract trades near the 19th percentile of the past five-year price range, indicating relatively low prices historically.
Meanwhile, soybean oil prices are forecast to stay weak or decline during July–August 2025 due to increased U.S. soybean stocks, only marginally reduced planted acreage, and strong global competition from palm and sunflower oils. U.S. USDA June grain stock reports indicate large soybean inventories, supporting a stable crush volume but limiting upside on soybean oil prices.
Brazil harvested a record soybean crop in the first half of 2025 and exported significant volumes, while Argentina also posted strong production. U.S. crop progress remains favorable so far, aided by good weather despite reduced acreage. However, dry conditions in August are noted as a risk factor that could potentially impact yields.
Crop conditions and export demand in the U.S. and South America will crucially affect the global supply balance for the remainder of 2025. Policy factors such as EPA Renewable Volume Obligations to increase biodiesel blending in the U.S., and similar mandates anticipated in Brazil from August, support domestic processing and crush demand, potentially limiting export volumes despite large production.
In the current market, soybean oil prices tend to weaken under the pressure of ample stocks and global competition, while soybean bean prices have modest upside potential heading into August but remain sensitive to weather and geopolitical developments.
Futures closed the Monday session with contracts down 9 to 10 cents. The Brugler500 improved 5 points to 378. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report from USDA showed a total of 76% of the US bean crop blooming, with 41% setting pods. Preliminary open interest suggested longs exiting the market, with a drop of 26,541 contracts on Monday. Soymeal futures were fading lower on Monday, with contracts $1.60 to $2.90. The cmdtyView national average new crop Cash Bean price was down 10 1/2 cents at $9.59 1/4.
On Monday, Sep 25 Soybeans closed at a lower price of $9.92 1/2, a decrease of 9 1/2 cents. Soybeans are trading with 2 to 3 cent losses early on Tuesday morning. Soy Oil was 1 to 27 points higher on the day. Condition ratings were back up 2% to 70% in good/excellent categories. Monday morning's Export Inspections report showed a total of 409,714 (15.05 mbu) of soybeans shipped in the week of 7/24.
It is important to note that all information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. Conditions may evolve approaching August 25, 2025. For more information, view the article's Disclosure Policy here.
This analysis reflects currently available market intelligence as of late July 2025. Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the mentioned securities on the date of publication.
Given the current market conditions, investing in soybean beans could potentially yield profits as they show modest upside potential heading into August, despite being sensitive to weather and geopolitical developments. However, the outlook for soybean oil prices remains weak or likely to decline due to ample stocks and strong global competition.
