Russia's Social Fund to Post Surplus in 2026-2028 as Wages Rise
Russia's Social Fund is set to record its first surplus in 2026-2028, driven primarily by rising nominal wages in 2023-2024. Meanwhile, the Mandatory Health Insurance Fund is expected to remain in deficit throughout this period.
The Social Fund's income and expenses for temporary disability and maternity social security in 2026 are both projected to reach 1.4 trillion rubles. Its income from mandatory pension insurance in 2026 is expected to be 12.3 trillion rubles, with expenses of 12.1 trillion rubles. The surplus can be attributed to the cancellation of certain business tax benefits and an increase in insurance contributions due to a 'wage race'.
The Mandatory Health Insurance Fund's main expense item remains the subsidy for medical assistance in the regions. Its deficit is expected to increase from 82 billion rubles in 2026 to 85 billion rubles by 2028. The Social Fund's income from occupational injury and disease insurance in 2026 is projected to be 319 billion rubles, with expenses of 222 billion rubles. The Social Fund's surplus in 2026 is projected to be 338 billion rubles, increasing to 321 billion rubles by 2028.
The Social Fund's surplus in 2026-2028 is a significant shift, primarily driven by increased nominal wages and policy changes. However, the Mandatory Health Insurance Fund's persistent deficit remains a concern, with expenses primarily driven by regional medical subsidies.
