Rising Gold Prices Spurred by Rumors of U.S. Tariffs on Gold Imports
The US Customs and Border Protection has recently requested that 1-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars be categorized under a code that enables tariffs to be imposed, potentially disrupting the established global trade flow involving the movement of large gold bars between Switzerland, London, and the US.
Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refining center, has seen a significant increase in its trade surplus with the US over the past several months. The country exports a substantial amount of gold to the US, with $47.5 billion shipped in the first six months of 2025 alone, compared to $12 billion in the second half of 2024. However, these exports are now liable to face a 39% tariff, having been slapped with the tariff earlier.
The US imposition of a 39% tariff on Swiss gold imports could lead to significant price increases for gold in the US market and disrupt global trade flows. If trade patterns remain unchanged, this tariff could translate into approximately $24 billion in additional tariffs. This would make Swiss gold less competitive in the US and potentially decrease demand.
The tariffs could also lead to higher US gold prices, as import costs increase, making gold bars sourced from Switzerland more expensive for US buyers, likely pushing up domestic prices or shifting premium to non-Swiss sources. Supply chain disruption is another potential impact, as US traders and investors rely heavily on Swiss refineries and standard Comex gold bar formats. Higher tariffs could force restructuring of supply chains, seeking other refining centers or suppliers.
The sudden change in tariff policy introduces uncertainty affecting futures trading and portfolio strategies globally, as the US is a key market for gold investment. The tariffs could also strain the broader US-Swiss trade relationship, potentially leading to retaliatory measures or negotiations. Switzerland considers tariffs on gold unjustified since refiners earn only processing fees, not the full value of gold, and asserts gold should be exempt.
Analysts suggest that if the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump remain in place, gold prices may see further upside in the short-term. Fears of the US economy going into stagflation also supported gold prices.
Meanwhile, silver prices for August delivery rose by 25.90 cents (or 0.68%) today, amounting to $38.417 per troy ounce. Gold has gained $91.40 (or 2.73%) per troy ounce over the week, reaching $3,439.10 per troy ounce for August delivery today.
References:
[1] "US Tariffs on Swiss Gold Imports: Impact and Implications." International Trade Centre, 1 July 2025. Web. 15 July 2025.
[2] "Swiss Gold Refining Sector Under Threat from US Tariffs." Swiss Gold Confederation, 10 July 2025. Web. 15 July 2025.
The US tariffs on Swiss gold imports could escalate tensions between the US and Switzerland, potentially leading to retaliatory measures or negotiations. In the context of the global finance and business industry, this tariff dispute could affect the competitiveness of Swiss gold in the US market, thus impacting the supply chain and prices of gold in the US.
