Rio Tinto's stock futures surge despite profit drop and analyst caution in 2026
Rio Tinto has seen a mixed start to 2026, with its stock futures hitting a 52-week high despite a recent downgrade from Barclays on Yahoo Finance. The mining giant also announced a final dividend and reported its 2025 financial results, showing both gains and setbacks in the stock market. Meanwhile, its expansion into lithium and a fatal accident at a key site have drawn attention.
The company's stock futures reached €85.26 in late February 2026, marking a new 52-week peak. This followed a 36% rise in share price over 2025, driven by strong market conditions. However, analysts have taken differing views: Barclays downgraded Rio Tinto to 'Equal Weight' with a 6,600 GBp target, while Goldman Sachs shifted to 'Neutral' at 7,400 GBp.
In its 2025 financial report, Rio Tinto posted $57.6 billion in revenue, though net profit fell 14% to $10 billion in the finance sector. Operational performance improved, with EBITDA climbing 9% to $25.4 billion. The firm also declared a final dividend of $2.54 per share, payable from March 5, 2026.
The year also saw strategic moves, including a majority stake in Nemaska Lithium to boost its lithium portfolio. Yet challenges persisted: work at the Simandou mine paused after a fatal accident, and merger discussions with Glencore were formally abandoned.
Rio Tinto enters 2026 with a strong stock futures performance but faces mixed analyst sentiment in the finance sector. The dividend payout and lithium investment signal confidence, while the Simandou incident and profit decline highlight ongoing hurdles. Shareholders will now watch how these factors shape the company's next steps in the stock market.
