The Potential Threat of Job Losses in Germany Due to the US-China Tariff War
Potential disruptions in US-China trade relations might jeopardize German employment opportunities.
In the heat of the global trade war between the US and China, Germany could find itself in the crossfire, according to a recent study. If there's no resolution to the tariff disputes, Chinese exporters are likely to shift their focus to Europe, with Germany bearing the brunt of the increased competition.
Allianz Trade's economist, Jasmin Groeschl, elaborates on this probability, suggesting that as many as 17,000 to 25,000 industrial jobs could be at risk in Germany. Sectors particularly vulnerable include mechanical engineering, textiles, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computers, and motor vehicles.
Mechanical engineering alone could see 13,000 to 19,000 job losses while non-metallic mineral products could lose 1,200 to 1,800 jobs, and the textile industry could potentially see around 2,200 to 3,300 jobs under threat. It's essential to note that these estimates represent around 0.2 to 0.3 percent of the total industrial employment in Germany.
Regions like Upper Franconia, Tübingen, and the Freiburg region may bear the brunt of these job losses due to their reliance on these industries.
While the US-China trade war's consequences may not be as dramatic as those faced by countries directly involved, it's crucial to recognize that broader economic effects can still impact Germany's economy. Trade tensions could contribute to economic stagnation, affecting industries that rely on export markets, though direct employment losses from the US-China tariff dispute may not be as significant.
Indirect effects from the global trade slowdown could potentially impact sectors like automotive and machinery, as any deterioration in global trade can reduce demand for German goods. However, the specific job losses due to the US-China tariff dispute would depend on how global trade patterns shift and whether Germany benefits from any redirected exports.
[1] Currently, Germany has reduced its economic growth forecast for 2025 to zero, indicating a year of stagnation following a recession (source: ntv.de, rts).
Sources: ntv.de, rts
- In the context of the US-China tariff war, Germany's community policy might need to address potential job losses, particularly in sectors like mechanical engineering, textiles, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computers, and motor vehicles.
- The employment policy should consider the likely impact of increased competition from Chinese exporters, as estimated job losses could reach up to 25,000 for industrial jobs in Germany, according to Allianz Trade's economist, Jasmin Groeschl.
- As a result of the US-China tariff war, employment policy might need to focus on regions heavily dependent on industries threatened by job losses, such as Upper Franconia, Tübingen, and the Freiburg region.
- In light of the US-China trade war, General-news, business, politics, and finance sectors might need to re-evaluate their tariff and employment policies, given the potential indirect effects on industries like automotive and machinery.
5.Whatsapp groups and online forums discussing general-news might want to share and discuss the potential job losses due to the US-China tariff war, to help the public gain a better understanding of the economic landscape and stay informed about pertinent policies.
