Midterms loom as inflation and unemployment squeeze American households
Economic concerns are shaping political strategies as the US heads into midterm elections. Former President Trump has shifted Republican messaging to focus on pricing, while Democrats continue to highlight affordability issues. Meanwhile, new data reveals persistent financial strain among Americans, with inflation and unemployment figures painting a mixed picture of the economy.
In November, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, marking a slowdown in hiring across several sectors. The latest inflation report showed food prices rising by 2.6% annually, while year-ahead inflation expectations remained high at 4.2%. Despite some relief at the pumps—petrol prices dipped below $3 per gallon for the first time since 2021—many households are still feeling the pinch.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index reflected this unease, registering 52.9 in December 2025. Though slightly up from November’s 51, the figure remains 28.5% lower than December 2024, with current conditions hitting a record low of 50.4—a 32.9% drop from the previous year. Nearly half of consumers surveyed cited high prices as a major burden, and charitable giving has declined as financial pressures mount. Against this backdrop, Trump took to Truth Social to defend his economic legacy, pointing to a 4.3% GDP growth rate and claiming no inflation under his administration. His comments came as the US Supreme Court considers legal challenges to his tariffs, which could force refunds for businesses that paid the duties. The court’s decision may further influence economic perceptions ahead of the midterms.
The economic outlook remains uncertain, with consumer confidence at its lowest point since the 1970s—even below levels seen at the start of past recessions. As political campaigns adapt to voter concerns, the focus on affordability and pricing is likely to dominate the midterm debate. The Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs could add another layer of change to an already volatile economic landscape.
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