Large Organizations Take Significant Gamble in Willy Adames' Free Agent Contract Agreement
The onslaught of interest surrounding Juan Soto's industry-wide wooing, culminating in his massive 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets, has left lesser free agent hitters' negotiations on the backburner. However, the San Francisco Giants managed to steal the headlines before Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings began, signing former Brewers' shortstop Willy Adames to a substantial seven-year, $182 million contract.
Let's start by acknowledging that Adames has consistently risen through the ranks, proving his worth as a solid, all-around player. He's shown exceptional prowess at the game’s most critical position in both leagues for Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. Adames' age of 29 in the 2025 season is a decent balance between youth and maturity, making him an enticing investment for any team seeking a long-term commitment. Moreover, Adames has managed to avoid any significant injuries throughout his career, which is noteworthy for a player who has consistently logged over 100 games in a full season.
Yet, at $28 million per season, Adames' contract might appear to some as a lofty sum of money. However, when compared to the superstar everyday players and the growing number of starting pitchers earning such substantial salaries, it seems reasonable for a player who since graduated from the minor leagues has received MVP votes in two different seasons.
There's no denying that Adames' potential investment causes some concerns for me.
How skillful is his defense?
Adames' advanced defensive metrics have seen fluctuations, and in 2024 they dipped slightly below average levels. Some whispers emerged during the free agent period about the possibility of a shift in his position to third base if presented with the correct opportunity. Luckily for San Francisco, they already have the best defensive 3B in the business in Matt Chapman. However, the Giants can't expect world-class defense from their new shortstop. My main apprehensions lie in other arenas.
Does he possess enough power before contact?
In the world of baseball analytics, I've learned to favor hitters with power that develop later in their careers, over those who rely heavily on their power early on. On average, hitters with a power-before-hit approach tend to see a sudden decline in their performance and retire from the game earlier. Adames, with a career batting slash line of .248/.322/.444, has hit 150 home runs at shortstop, which is nothing short of impressive. But as time progresses, a few trends emerge.
Can he maintain his lift and pull?
Adames is known for his aggressive swing, which results in an above-average launch angle and an excessive tendency to hit to the pull side. His past numbers show that he has struck out more balls each season, while his advanced metrics hint at an impending decline in his power. Adames' lack of control over his approach and his reliance on home run volume is bound to bite him in the long run.
In both 2023 and 2024, Adames' fly ball authority dropped significantly, but he maintained his home run output due to an increase in fly balls. However, this trend won't last forever, either. His swing tends to produce an above-average number of ground balls, and those dancehalls of despair aren't known for their longevity. To make matters worse, Adames will be playing in a park that suppresses home runs for the first time in his career.
Willy Adames was a valuable asset for both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee, and I had nothing but praise for them when they signed him at the time. His intangibles are worthy of acclaim - he excels as a leader who has contributed to many victories with two budget-conscious clubs. However, the Giants are investing a significant amount of money into a player who has already cemented his reputation. I am not predicting that Adames will fail in San Francisco, but it's important to note that this contract may not age gracefully.
The Mew York Mets' signing of Juan Soto has certainly raised the bar for free agent contracts, but Willy Adames' seven-year deal with the San Francisco Giants, while substantial, seems justifiable considering his MVP vote-earning potential and consistent performance. The Giants already have Matt Chapman, one of the best defensive third basemen, which could potentially affect Adames' position.
Willy Adames' power at the plate is undeniable, with 150 career home runs as a shortstop. However, his reliance on his power early in his career and his tendency to hit to the pull side could potentially lead to a decline in performance as time progresses. Adames' home run output in 2023 and 2024 was impressive despite a drop in fly ball authority, but his above-average number of ground balls and the suppressive nature of his new park may pose challenges.
Despite his achievements with Tampa Bay and Milwaukee, Willy Adames' contract with the Giants could be tested by his aggressive swing and reliance on home run volume, which may not age as gracefully as some might hope.
