June retail sales growth in Turkey softens, yet remains robust
The Turkish economy has displayed a mixed yet generally positive outlook in retail sales, industrial output, and total turnover index, as revealed by recent data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
Retail Sales
The growth in retail sales has demonstrated strong but moderating trends. Year-over-year retail sales volume rose by 14.7% in June 2025, a deceleration from May’s 17.6%, reflecting a robust consumer demand despite a slowdown. Subcategories like non-food product sales (excluding automotive fuel) increased by 19.1% after 21.6% in May, food, drinks, and tobacco by 10%, and automotive fuel sales growth slowed to 4%. Online sales growth also eased to 6.9% from 11.7%. Month-on-month, retail sales increased 1.3% in June following 1.9% in May. Overall, total trade sales volume, including wholesale and retail trade, and motor vehicles sales, rose 22.5% year-over-year in June, above May’s 19.5% growth.
Industrial Output
Industrial output expanded at its fastest pace in nearly 18 months, growing 8.3% annually in June 2025. This improvement in manufacturing and production activities, which had slowed earlier, supports broad-based economic recovery.
Total Turnover Index
The total turnover index, measuring turnover across industry, construction, trade, and services sectors, surged dramatically by 45.0% year-on-year in June 2025. This substantial increase in business activity and sales across multiple sectors reinforces the positive momentum in economic activities despite some sectoral challenges.
Economic Growth
In terms of broader economic growth, Turkey's GDP growth rate in 2025 is projected to be slightly below 4%, showing a mild slowdown compared to previous years but not a sharp contraction. This is partly due to ongoing inflation control efforts and monetary tightening, with inflation expected to end 2025 around 24% and gradually ease thereafter.
The economy is on track to surpass a $1.4 trillion GDP by end 2025, maintaining a long-term average annual growth rate of about 5.3% over the past two decades, fueled significantly by exports and trade.
In summary, Turkish retail sales remain strong though with moderating momentum, industrial output shows renewed acceleration, and the total turnover index signals robust multi-sector activity, despite a slight overall GDP growth deceleration to just under 4% in 2025. The data reflect an economy stabilizing with ongoing internal and external challenges, including inflation management and global trade uncertainties.
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