Increasing emissions from agricultural machinery might obstruct China's ambitious net-zero plans.
The increasing emissions from agricultural machinery in China pose a significant challenge to the country’s emissions reduction goals and air quality. A recent study published in Nature Food reveals that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from agricultural machinery have increased approximately seven-fold since 1985, growing annually by a rate of 5.7%.
The researchers, relying on data from the China Statistical Yearbook, calculated machinery-related emissions of CO2, PM2.5, NOx, and THC over 1985-2020. They found that changes in mechanisation alone were responsible for a 100% increase in emissions over 1985-2000.
Population growth was a large driver of increasing farm equipment emissions over the early part of the study period, but it has been less of a factor since 2000. The researchers break the emissions down to the province level, finding a large range of agricultural machinery emissions, with five provinces in eastern and north-eastern China - Shandong, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Anhui - accounting for more than 40% of agricultural machinery emissions.
Under current policies, China aims to achieve comprehensive mechanisation in major crop production processes by 2035. However, the rising contribution of agricultural machinery emissions threatens to undermine progress in curbing greenhouse gas emissions from other sectors. According to previous work, agricultural emissions could account for up to 21% of China's total emissions in 2050, under a pathway to its 2060 net-zero goal.
To mitigate these emissions, several strategies could be pursued. The adoption of green and energy-efficient technologies in agricultural machinery, such as electric or hybrid engines, reduces reliance on fossil fuels and lowers emissions. Implementing policy measures encouraging cleaner fuel use and stricter emission standards for agricultural equipment is another approach. Integrating sustainable agricultural practices, including conservation tillage, which reduces fuel consumption by minimizing soil disturbance, is also crucial.
In the longer term, renewable energy sources, as well as green hydrogen, have the largest mitigation potential. Encouraging the manufacturing of clean-energy agricultural equipment parallels China’s large-scale clean energy manufacturing and export strategy that aims to cut emissions domestically and globally.
Effective mitigation of these emissions will require different strategies in the short- and long-term future. In the near term, biofuels and natural gas will play an important role over the coming decade. In the longer term, renewable energy sources, as well as green hydrogen, have the largest mitigation potential.
Regarding air quality, emissions from agricultural machinery add to the burden of pollutants, exacerbating environmental degradation and health risks linked to air pollution. While detailed air quality impact assessments specific to agricultural machinery emissions are limited in the provided results, the significant share of emissions suggests a notable effect.
In summary, the rise in emissions from agricultural machinery complicates China’s path to carbon neutrality and air quality improvement. However, leveraging green technologies, enforcing stricter emission policies, and adopting sustainable farming mechanization offer promising pathways to reduce these emissions effectively. Unabated continued growth of agricultural mechanisation could compromise China's efforts to achieve its "dual-carbon" goals.
- The rising emissions from agricultural machinery in China could challenge the country's aims for carbon neutrality and improved air quality.
- A study in Nature Food revealed a seven-fold increase in CO2 emissions from agricultural machinery since 1985, growing at a yearly rate of 5.7%.
- Mechanisation changes alone resulted in a 100% increase in emissions between 1985 and 2000.
- In the early part of the study period, population growth was a significant driver of farm equipment emissions, but it has decreased as a factor since 2000.
- The provinces of Shandong, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Anhui account for over 40% of agricultural machinery emissions in China.
- To mitigate these emissions, strategies such as adopting green and energy-efficient technologies, implementing cleaner fuel policies, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices can be pursued.
- In the long term, renewable energy sources and green hydrogen have the largest potential to lessen agricultural machinery emissions.
- Unchecked continued growth of agricultural mechanisation could hinder China's efforts to achieve its "dual-carbon" goals, which include improved air quality and carbon neutrality.
