Increased forecast for 2026 oil demand and reduction in production expansion from competitive sources by OPEC
OPEC Forecasts Increase in Global Oil Demand for 2026
In a recent report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, predicting an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd). This upward revision represents a 100,000 bpd increase compared to the previous forecast.
According to the report, the total oil demand is projected to average 106.52 million bpd in 2026. This forecast is based on the stronger economic performance in key regions such as OECD America, OECD Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
On the supply side, OPEC has adjusted its forecast for non-OPEC+ liquids production growth in 2026 downward by 100,000 bpd to around 600,000 bpd. The anticipated "call on OPEC+ crude" — the volume OPEC+ needs to produce to balance the market — is expected to increase to 43.1 million bpd in 2026, an upward revision of 200,000 bpd compared to previous estimates.
The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC and Russia and other allies, is expected to maintain its oil policy on Monday. The group has been implementing cuts aimed at supporting the market for several years. However, this year's decision to increase output quotas has led to further increases in crude output, with OPEC+ raising crude output by 335,000 bpd in July.
The revised forecast for oil supply from countries outside the OPEC+ group is 630,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 730,000 barrels per day. The report does not specify the countries outside the OPEC+ group that will contribute to the revised oil supply forecast.
The report, a monthly publication from OPEC, suggests a tighter market outlook due to the revised forecasts. This forecast reflects OPEC's optimism based on global economic growth trends observed in the first half of 2025.
It's worth noting that the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a lower global oil demand in 2026 at about 104.4 million bpd, showing a more bearish outlook compared to OPEC.
The report was released by OPEC on Tuesday, providing a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of the global oil market. The OPEC+ group's actions are aimed at supporting the market after years of cuts, making it easier for the group to increase production and regain market share in response to the higher demand and the drop in supply growth from outside the group.
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