Increase in gas prices: Identifying those impacted
Gas Price Hike on the Horizon: What Kazakhstanis Need to Know
Get ready for a change in your gas bill starting from 1st July 2025. The Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan plans to boost the wholesale prices of commodity gas, as it currently sells below its actual cost price.
Expert assessments suggest that an annual increase of up to 33% over three years is necessary to secure minimum profitability. Prices will vary across regions, taking into account regional costs related to the purchase, transportation, and storage of gas.
The adjustment in wholesale prices won't directly affect retail tariffs for households, but rest assured, your interests are protected. Socially vulnerable citizens will be eligible for discounts of up to 24% on commodity gas.
It's important to note that the draft order, published on the "Open NPA" website, aims to streamline the regulation of wholesale prices for commodity gas in the domestic market. This move is expected to provide opportunities for constructing new gas processing plants, modernizing existing gas pipelines, and developing new gas fields, further bolstering the gas sector.
While the details of household gas prices aren't explicitly discussed in the available data, rising inflation and recent wholesale price cap reviews exert upward pressure. Experts from the ENERGY MONITOR Telegram channel predict that this change will contribute to a surge in gas imports from Russia, as Kazakhstan currently faces a gas deficit.
The government is implementing gas consumption standards and remote-metering installations to optimize usage and reduce household expenses through improved efficiency. Socially vulnerable groups, though not specified for direct discounts, will indirectly benefit from these measures.
Despite the forthcoming changes, the government is tightening state control over gas prices to prevent economic unprofitability in the gas industry. Kazakhstan is diverging toward becoming a net gas importer; in 2024, 3.8 billion cubic meters of gas were imported from Russia to bridge the domestic market demand.
As the gas sector evolves, gas production is forecast to reach 62.8 billion m³ by 2025, with domestic consumption projected at 21.3 billion m³. The demand is expected to escalate to 32.4 billion m³ by 2028 due to major fields like Karachaganak and Tengiz.
Balancing oil-driven growth, driven by Tengiz field expansion, with fiscal consolidation plans poses a challenge. The Asian Development Bank predicts a moderated inflation rate of 8.2%, conflicting with the National Bank's 10.6% forecast. The gas sector reforms aim to provide economic resilience amid global market volatility to support the country's overall economic stability.
[1] Source: "Kazakhstan: Gas Production Forecasts for Giant Fields in Next Decade," International Gas Union, 2023.
[2] Source: "Industrial Prices, Inflation Rise in Kazakhstan," Kazakhstan News, 2024.
[3] Source: "Gasoline Price Benchmark in Kazakhstan," Kazakhstan Energy Agency, 2025.
[4] Source: "Kazakhstan's Gas Sector: Trends and Future Developments," Eurasia Group, 2025.
[5] Source: "Kazakhstan: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Challenges," Asian Development Bank, 2025.
- To improve profitability in the gas industry, Kazakhstan plans an exclusive adjustment to wholesale prices of commodity gas, aiming to boost them by up to 33% over three years.
- The new gas prices, slated to take effect in July 2025, will be adjusted based on regional costs related to purchase, transportation, and storage of gas, affecting communities differently.
- To offset the potential financial burden on socially vulnerable citizens, the government has proposed discounts of up to 24% for commodity gas, providing indirect assistance in response to the price hike.
- The forthcoming changes in gas prices and the anticipated increase in gas imports from Russia indicate that the exclusive restructuring of the domestic gas sector is likely to have a significant impact on the finance and energy industry in Kazakhstan, adjusting its course by 2025.
