Imports in the U.S. predicted to decrease once more due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, according to the National Retail Federation's warning.
A recent report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates predicts a significant drop in containerized cargo volumes at major U.S. ports in the latter half of 2025, primarily due to the resumption and introduction of tariffs.
The projected decline, which is expected to start in August, comes after a rebound in import volumes in July. The report indicates that total import volumes for the first half of 2025 are expected to reach around 12.63 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), a 4.5% increase over the same period in 2024. July containerized cargo volumes are forecast to hit 2.36 million TEUs, a 2.1% increase from the same month last year.
However, the report also warns of sharp declines from August through November. The estimated drop in August is 10.4%, with a steep 21.3% fall expected in November. These declines are primarily driven by the resumption and introduction of tariffs, some of which could reach up to 40% on imports from various countries.
The surge in early imports at U.S. ports is largely attributed to the impact of impending tariffs and the rush to front-load cargo in previous months. This trend has been fueled by strike concerns and potential tariff increases, adding to the uncertainty retailers face.
The disruptions caused by tariff concerns and potential tariff increases have driven an early surge in imports at U.S. ports. Retailers are now facing the challenge of navigating trade policy volatility and preparing for the critical holiday season under uncertain conditions.
The global supply chain, according to Hackett Associates, performs best in a stable and predictable trade environment. The recent wave of tariff-related announcements has only added to the uncertainty retailers face. The report does not specify which ports the rebound in containerized cargo volumes is expected at or which countries the new tariffs of up to 40% will be imposed.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated that retailers are working hard to bring in goods ahead of various announced and delayed tariffs. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, echoed these sentiments, noting that the recent wave of tariff-related announcements has only added to the uncertainty retailers face.
Despite the increase, the first half figure falls short of earlier forecasts made before the April tariff announcements. The report does not provide details on the impact of these tariffs on the overall economy or on individual businesses.
The report also highlights that U.S. ports handled 1.95 million TEUs in May 2025, a decrease of 11.8% from April and 6.4% lower than May 2024. The mixed outlook for the rest of 2025 heavily influences the projected containerized cargo volumes, with the impact of new tariffs remaining unclear.
In summary, after a rebound in import volumes in July 2025, U.S. containerized cargo through major ports is projected to decline significantly in the last five months of the year due to new tariffs taking effect, disrupting trade flows and adding unpredictability to supply chains.
- The decrease in global trade, as indicated by the projected drop in containerized cargo volumes, could potentially impact various industries that rely on supply chain management and finance, such as manufacturing, retail, and international business.
- As the resumption and introduction of tariffs create volatility in the trade environment, businesses will need to adapt and navigate these challenges to maintain their supply chain efficiency and integrity.
