Imported goods from the EU face a 30% tariff in the US, causing economic strain on Italy, Spain, Greece, and Ireland.
Italy, a key player in the European Union, stands to face significant economic consequences if the United States were to impose a 30% tariff on European imports. According to various Italian organizations, this move could lead to a cumulative contraction of Italy's GDP by 1.4% between 2025 and 2026, effectively reversing forecasted growth and causing a total loss of around €30 billion.
The most exposed sectors to these tariffs are beverages, metal products, pharmaceuticals, furniture, retail trade, and means of transport other than motor vehicles. The depreciation of the dollar against the euro (-13% since the start of Trump's second term) has made European exports more expensive in the U.S. market, widening the gap for Italian companies selling in the U.S., making it 23% more expensive compared to 2023.
This devaluation has resulted in a cumulative loss of up to 21% for Italian exporters compared to the pre-Trump period. Over 6,000 businesses, with over 140,000 employees, in Italy are directly exposed to high potential risks due to tariffs. If tariffs were to rise to 30%, Italy could lose up to €38 billion in exports to the U.S., out of current exports of €65 billion.
The increase in Italy's trade surplus is primarily due to a strong reduction in the deficit in extracted industry products. However, the impact would be even greater, warns Fontana. The regions most affected would be those with the highest manufacturing value added: Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Tuscany. 99% of the affected exports would be manufacturing goods, with the mechanical industry being particularly exposed.
The average tariffs on imports from around the world into the U.S. have risen from 2.3% to 8.8% since April. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti stresses the importance of reaching a reasonable compromise on tariffs. Despite the challenges, EY-Parthenon noted increased foreign investments by Italian companies in the first half of 2025, which might be a strategy to offset U.S. market barriers.
According to Centro Studi Confindustria, at 30% tariffs, Italian exports to the U.S. could decline by 58% (about €38 billion), equal to roughly 6% of Italy’s total exports and 4% of its manufacturing production. This would impact sectors unevenly, with traditional industrial and fashion exports highly vulnerable. Surveys by Bank of Italy and Confindustria indicate that around 80% of Italian companies focusing on the U.S. market expect export reductions starting from Q2 2025, with 50% anticipating lower exports and 20% expecting lower investments due to tariff hikes and increased uncertainty.
While specific job loss numbers are not provided, the large shrinkage in exports and manufacturing production implies significant risks for employment in export-dependent industries, especially in sectors like fashion, design, food, metals, and motor vehicles heavily targeted by tariffs. The slowing economy and reduced business investments also likely translate into fewer jobs.
Industries such as fashion, design, food, metals, motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and wood products show divergent trends, but most exposed sectors face declines in sales and production under 30% tariffs. For example, Confindustria’s fashion accessories sector is heavily affected given the importance of U.S. exports.
Overall, these Italian organizations forecast that a 30% US tariff would drastically reduce Italian export volumes to the U.S., harm GDP growth prospects, depress business activity, and threaten jobs, potentially wiping out gains from recent economic recoveries.
Key points summarized:
| Economic Aspect | Estimated Impact | Source(s) | |--------------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------| | GDP | -1.4% cumulative contraction (2025-26), €30B loss | EY-Parthenon, Confindustria [1][2][4] | | Exports | -58% to US (about €38B), 6% of total exports | Centro Studi Confindustria [4] | | Businesses | 80% expect export declines; 50% anticipate lower exports; 20% lower investments | Bank of Italy Survey, Confindustria [4] | | Jobs | Likely significant losses in export-related sectors | Inferred from export/production decline [1][4] | | Sectors affected | Fashion, design, food, metals, motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals, wood | ICE, Confindustria, Coldiretti [1][4] |
- The tariffs could potentially lead to a 58% decrease in Italian exports to the US, amounting to about €38 billion, according to Centro Studi Confindustria.
- The federal government's trade policy poses a significant risk to employment in export-dependent sectors, particularly fashion, design, food, metals, motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and wood products.
- The overall impact of a 30% tariff on US imports would be detrimental, likely reducing Italian export volumes, harming GDP growth prospects, depressing business activity, and threatening jobs, potentially wiping out gains from recent economic recoveries.
