Import volumes through retailers anticipated to decrease by 5.6% in the year 2025, due to the impact of tariffs
The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates' Global Port Tracker report predict a 5.6% decrease in import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports for 2025 compared to 2024 [1][2][3][4]. This forecast reflects the impact of new tariffs and trade policies that have led to disruptions in trade flows and increased consumer prices.
The decline means fewer goods will be imported, which could result in lower store inventories and challenges for small businesses [1][2][4]. The report measures volumes in Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), projecting 24.1 million TEUs in 2025, down from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024 [3].
The anticipated decrease in overall import volumes from September to December is primarily due to cargo being pulled forward earlier in the year because of tariffs [1][2][4]. The forecast for August volume is 5% off at 2.2 million TEUs, and September at 1.83 million TEUs, 19.5% weaker year-over-year [1]. Similarly, the forecast for October is 18.9% off at 1.82 million TEUs, and 21.1% lower in November at 1.71 million TEUs [1].
The NRF did not project an increase in import cargo volume for any month from August to December 2025 compared to the same months in 2024 [1]. The total volume for the first half of 2025 is 12.53 million TEUs, representing a 3.6% increase from the same period in 2024 [1].
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated that tariffs are driving up consumer prices and could lead to fewer goods on store shelves [4]. Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, stated that the unpredictable nature of tariffs is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters, and consumers [1].
In June, U.S. ports processed 1.96 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a 0.7% increase from May but an 8.4% decrease year-over-year [1]. The NRF represents Walmart, Target, and other major retailers [2]. New tariffs on goods from dozens of countries went into effect on a milestone day in the Trump administration's on-again off-again trade policy [2].
The tariffs and trade policy are still impacting the supply chain, causing a decrease in the volume of import cargo at major U.S. container ports for the second half of 2025 [1]. The anticipated total volume for the entire year of 2025 is 24.1 million TEUs, a decrease of 5.6% from the 25.5 million TEUs in 2024 [3].
[1] - https://www.porttracker.org/ [2] - https://www.nrf.com/ [3] - https://www.americanjournaloftransportation.com/ [4] - https://www.reuters.com/
The decreased import cargo volume in the retail industry might force small businesses to confront challenges with maintaining store inventory levels [1]. The anticipated decline in overall import volumes could potentially influence the finance sector, as fewer goods imported might affect business revenue [4].
