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Germany’s cigarette sales plummet as e-cigarette tax stamps surge ahead of 2026

A quarter-century of decline continues as smoking fades—but why are e-cigarette tax stamps spiking? The answer lies in upcoming tax changes, not demand.

In this image we can see a person holding a cigarette in his hand.
In this image we can see a person holding a cigarette in his hand.

Amount of taxed cigarettes in 2025 similar to the previous year - Germany’s cigarette sales plummet as e-cigarette tax stamps surge ahead of 2026

Cigarette sales in Germany are continuing their long-term decline, with consumption expected to drop further by 2026. The latest market forecast from the BVTE predicts a fall to 38.2 billion cigarettes, down from higher figures in recent years. Meanwhile, other tobacco products show mixed trends, including a surge in e-cigarette liquid tax stamps.

In 2024, Germany recorded its first rise in taxed cigarette volumes in five years, reaching 66.2 billion. However, the BVTE now estimates that total sales for 2025 will slightly dip to around 66 billion. By the end of November 2025, 62.6 billion cigarettes had already been taxed, keeping overall volumes close to 2024 levels.

Sales of fine-cut rolling tobacco remained steady in 2025, holding at 23,635 metric tons—virtually unchanged from the previous year. This stability contrasts with the broader decline in cigarette use, which has halved over the past 25 years. One notable shift came in the e-cigarette market. Orders for tax stamps on e-cigarette liquids jumped by over 22% in 2025. The BVTE attributes this rise to manufacturers preparing for an upcoming tax bracket change rather than a sudden spike in demand.

The BVTE’s projections confirm a clear downward trend in cigarette consumption, with sales expected to shrink to 38.2 billion by 2026. While traditional tobacco products show little movement, the sharp increase in e-cigarette tax stamps points to industry adjustments ahead of regulatory changes. The overall decline in smoking reflects a long-term shift in consumer behavior.

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