Expansion of micro-loans anticipated to reach approximately 60%
Reimagined Forecast:
Hear this folks, the financial scene's looking spicy in 2025, courtesy of some nifty changes in the banking world. The bigwigs are cranking up capital requirements for banks and slapping on debt limits for bank retail in the latter half of '25. Guess who's gonna feel the heat? Yep, you guessed it! Microfinance Organizations (MFOs) are gonna backpedal and reshape their gameplan, according to industry insiders.
Analysts are all but betting on a 50% microloan portfolio surge, and MFOs showing a near-double increase in loan volume. By year's end, these bad boys could own 70% of the market share (remember, at the end of '24, the figure was 52%). Rumor has it that profits are gunna jump 5-15% this year, bouncing back from last year's 7% plummet to a cool 53 billion rubles. The analysts also foresee a 10% MFO downturn to 815 companies in 2025 due to stiff competition in the microloan market.
Things started cookin' in '24, with the MFO market sizzlin' at breakneck speed. The volume of microloans dished out skyrocketed by 51% to 1.5 trillion rubles, a sharp contrast to the 30% rise in '23. The MFO powerhouses doubled their loan volume, while other market players showed a modest 20% increase in lending. The number of MFOs took a hit of 11% to 902 companies over the year.
The demand for MFO services started simmering in the fall of '24. By December, 70% of new loans were microloans – a significant leap from the 47.4% of the previous year. Last March, Russia experienced a first when microloan supply was served up hotter than credit card offerings, according to RIA Novosti. Microloans saw a 13.8% increase in a month, while credit card issuance dipped by 2.9%. On an annual basis, microloans gained 52.7%, while the credit card market shrank by a shocking 49.8%.
What's for '25, you ask? Well, the analysts at "Expert RA" have their crystal ball out, predicting further growth in the MFO market. The changes announced by the Central Bank won't reach peak effectiveness until '27, they say. In '25, the regulator intends to cap loan overpayments at just 100% of the principal amount. From '26, there'll be a lending limit on the "expensive" loans per borrower, and from '27, the "one loan per hand" rule will be enforced. Mathematicians at the Central Bank have worked out that the MFO portfolio might decrease by 40% to 313 billion rubles in '26 and a further 55% to 235 billion rubles in '27.
So, if ya wanna keep tabs on this rollercoaster ride, follow our Telegram channel @expert_mag.
Hashtags: #MFOs, #Microloans
In 2025, Microfinance Organizations (MFOs) might experience a decreased finance portfolio due to increased capital requirements and debt limits for banks, as predicted by the experts at Expert RA. This decrease could be to the tune of 55% by the end of 2027, reaching 235 billion rubles. In contrast, the analysts foresee a surge in microloan portfolio, with a 50% rise predicted for the year 2025.
