Economic Uncertainty: Ukraine, Trump, and Rising Inflation Pervade Globally
In recent analysis, it has become evident that Germans are expressing significant concerns about the political landscape in the United States and its potential impact on Europe's security and stability. This apprehension is multifaceted, with several key trends emerging from polling data.
One of the primary sources of anxiety among Germans is the reliability of US security guarantees, particularly under President Donald Trump, with fears that he might withdraw the US from its leading role in NATO. This uncertainty has led to growing support for European strategic autonomy, including the idea of a European nuclear umbrella and a common army, with 69% of Germans supporting a European army in March 2025.
Moreover, only about one in five Germans believe world leaders should cooperate closely with President Trump, indicating a lack of trust in US political leadership. There is a notable generational divide, with nearly half of Germans aged 18-29 thinking world leaders should be more confrontational with the Trump administration, twice as many as those aged 65+.
Another concern is the perceived widening gap between US and German political rhetoric, particularly concerning support for far-right parties and differing interpretations of democracy. This competition between the CDU/CSU and the AfD for segments of the electorate skeptical of European cooperation and US influence is further fueling German unease.
Direct evidence linking German concern over US politics and the global economy to specific changes in consumer behaviour is limited, but several indirect effects can be inferred. Uncertainty over US leadership and the global economic outlook may lead to increased economic caution among German consumers, such as higher savings rates or delayed major purchases. However, there is no clear polling data explicitly connecting these concerns to direct changes in consumer spending patterns.
The desire for European independence may translate into preferences for European products or brands over American ones, though this is speculative and not broadly documented in market research. Support for increased EU military spending and European cooperation could also reflect a broader preference for resilience and self-sufficiency in economic and political affairs.
German businesses may also be more cautious about transatlantic trade and investment under heightened political uncertainty. There is potential for increased support for local or regional supply chains as a hedge against global instability.
In summary, Germans are increasingly concerned about US politics and its implications for global security and the economy, particularly under current leadership. This is leading to calls for greater European autonomy and could foster more cautious consumer and business behaviour, though direct evidence of this impact remains limited. The slow recovery in consumer sentiment suggests a potential prolonged economic concern among Germans.
- The growing support for European strategic autonomy among Germans, evident in the increase of those advocating for a European army, can be directly linked to their concerns about the political landscape in the United States, especially the reliability of US security guarantees under President Donald Trump.
- The perceived difference between US and German political rhetoric, which includes support for far-right parties and differing interpretations of democracy, is another concern for Germans, fueling their desire for increased independence from the US and potential shifts in consumer behavior towards European products and brands.
