Economic Challenges escalate: Deepening Recessions, Increased Tariffs, and Advancing Timeline
Weekend Reflections: Roche Recession Rule Update
Hey there! Here's what's tickling my gray matter this week:
1) Revamping the Roche Recession Rule
Got my hands on the infamous, and I do mean INFAMOUS, Roche Recession Rule. Baptized it with my own name, like a dad name-dropping his kid, you feel me? Anyway, I've given it a bit of a spruce-up. Here's the lowdown:
Behind the Name
This economic pointer was my brainchild, if you will—I'm its daddy, if you catch my drift. Now, if you wanna create your own recession rule, all power to ya, but it probably won't sound as cool if it don't start with an "R," see what I'm sayin'?[1]
The New Rule: A Labor Market Tango
The updated dance floor move involves adding up the 4-week jobless claims and the U1 unemployment rate (year-over-year percentage basis). If this duo signals a waltz toward recession, it's practically guaranteed to be a recession dance, going all the way back to 1965.[1]
While the current waltz shows a delicate, soft labor market, not yet leading us to the Recession Ballroom, we gotta keep our eyes on the prize. Keep watching for those tariff dance steps. If they take a turn for the worse, you might see this dance couple slip into a recession.[1]
But don't worry, this labor market dance—the Roche Recession Rule—is as reliable as my old sneakers, man. Get your dancing shoes on!
[1] Source: [Enrichment Data Omitted for brevity]
- To create a reliable economic predictor similar to the Roche Recession Rule, one might consider examining changes in the labor market, possibly focusing on the 4-week jobless claims and the U1 unemployment rate within the business sector.
- As financial experts, we should keep a close watch on the labor market signs and the impact of tariffs on businesses, as they could potentially steer the economy toward a recession, according to the updated Roche Recession Rule.
