Dutch seniors face pension shortfalls as incomplete contributions surge by 2040

A wave of seniors with fragmented work histories is reshaping retirement in the Netherlands. Will the AIO scheme be enough to bridge the gap?

, and Administrator

2026 March 2 . 10:01 AM

1 min read

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Dutch seniors face pension shortfalls as incomplete contributions surge by 2040

More older households in the Netherlands will soon rely on supplementary income support due to incomplete state pension benefits. The Dutch Social Insurance Bank (SVB) predicts a sharp rise in demand for the AIO scheme by 2040. This increase reflects a growing number of seniors who did not spend their entire working lives in the country.

The AOW pension is reduced by 2% for each year a person fails to contribute. Those with less than 50 years of continuous residence or employment in the Netherlands before retirement receive lower pensions. As a result, many turn to the AIO scheme to avoid falling below the subsistence level.

Usage of the AIO has already climbed by about 35% over the past decade. By 2040, around 4.6 million people will be receiving the AOW pension, but not all will qualify for the full amount. The SVB expects roughly 94,000 households to depend on AIO by then—more than 50% higher than current figures.

The trend stems from an increasing number of seniors who worked or lived abroad for part of their careers. Without full contributions, their AOW entitlements remain incomplete, pushing them toward supplementary support.

The rise in AIO recipients highlights the challenges faced by older residents with incomplete pension contributions. By 2040, nearly 100,000 households may need this safety net to cover basic living costs. The SVB's projections underscore the long-term impact of fragmented work histories on retirement security.