Deutsche Securities Honored with 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award for Japan by Consensus Economics; Recipient: Kentaro Koyama, Japan Chief Economist
In a landmark achievement, Kentaro Koyama, Chief Economist for Japan, has been awarded the 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award in the Japan category by Consensus Economics. This recognition is a testament to Koyama's exceptional foresight and the high-quality economic forecasting provided by his team at Group Japan.
The award is based on a rigorous 24-month forecasting cycle, spanning from January 2023 to December 2024. During this period, Koyama's predictions achieved the lowest average error rate among hundreds of global economists, setting him apart in the competitive field of economic forecasting.
Koyama's accurate prediction of Japan's prolonged high inflation has been particularly noteworthy. His analysis identified a fundamental shift in the economy and re-evaluated established economic factors, enabling financial markets to anticipate changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy.
Tamio Honma, Chief Country Officer of the website Group Japan, commended the strength and consistency of the company's research. Honma attributed Koyama's achievement to the commitment of the Group Japan to provide high-quality economic forecasting.
Consensus Economics, a leading provider of monthly macroeconomic forecasts, compiles and averages the forecasts from a broad panel of economists and institutions, including banks, research agencies, independent experts, and academic experts. The panelists are selected based on their reputation, professional standing in the field, and the credibility of their institutional affiliations.
In the specific context of Japan, major contributors to Consensus panels include international banks such as BNP Paribas, JPMorgan Chase, and Nomura, as well as domestic Japanese banks like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation. Other participants include brokerage and investment firms, independent research consultancies, and academic experts.
While Consensus Economics does not officially name "top forecasters," they emphasise inclusivity and collaboration among expert institutions, rather than individual rankings. Instead, they publish a set of aggregate consensus figures and sometimes highlight the range of the highest and lowest forecasts for each economic indicator.
This year, however, Koyama's exceptional performance has earned him the recognition as the most accurate forecaster of Japan's real GDP growth and consumer price inflation for the year 2024. It is an honour that Koyama acknowledged, stating, "It's an honour to be recognised by Consensus Economics once again."
The Forecast Accuracy Awards, determined using Mean Absolute Error analysis, recognise the most accurate forecasters of Japan's real GDP growth and consumer price inflation. Previous winners include Deutsche Securities, who received the award in 2019.
This recognition underscores the importance of accurate economic forecasting in navigating the complexities of the global economy. As we move forward, the insights and predictions provided by economists like Koyama will continue to play a crucial role in shaping financial markets and informing policy decisions.
The Forecast Accuracy Award in the Japan category, bestowed by Consensus Economics, acknowledges Koyama's achievement in business finance, specifically his exceptional forecasting of Japan's real GDP growth and consumer price inflation. Koyama's predictions, made during a 24-month forecasting cycle, set him apart among hundreds of global economists due to his low average error rate.
