Cryptocurrency market momentum: Examining figures fueling debate on altcoin resurgence
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In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, the concept of an 'altcoin season' has become a topic of interest for many investors. An altcoin season is marked by a sustained outperformance of altcoins over Bitcoin, typically across various dimensions such as market cap growth, trading volume, and capital inflows.
However, as of mid-2025, no altcoin-focused ETF has emerged as a strong driver of broader flows. The volume of trading is still largely concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum pairs, despite centralized and decentralized exchanges reporting a higher volume share for altcoins during such periods.
Historically, an altcoin season is confirmed when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the prior 90 days. This benchmark, widely used by the Altcoin Season Index, helps identify periods of sustained altcoin outperformance in market cap growth, volume, and capital inflow.
Other key historical indicators of an altcoin season include:
- Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) dropping below 60% of total crypto market capitalization, which has historically triggered notable altcoin rallies.
- A rise in the total altcoin market cap (often measured as TOTAL2, which excludes Bitcoin), with breakouts above specific trillion-dollar thresholds signaling a green light for broad altcoin gains.
- The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio (ETH/BTC) climbing significantly, reflecting Ethereum’s strengthening position within altcoins.
- Large-scale outperformance from layer 1 and layer 2 tokens like Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche, with triple-digit gains in 60-day windows while Bitcoin moves sideways.
The Altcoin Season Index, a quantitative tool, assigns a score representing the proportion of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin. Scores above 75 confirm an altcoin season, scores between about 25 and 75 indicate transitional or neutral phases, and scores below 25 indicate Bitcoin dominance or a Bitcoin season.
In the current market, the Altcoin Season Index suggests an altcoin season may be forming soon but is not yet fully confirmed. The score currently stands at 51, indicating a potential shift towards altcoins but falling short of the 75% threshold.
It's important to note that the crypto market is unpredictable, and there's never a guarantee. Always trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
The current run without an altcoin season has lasted over 240 days, while the average duration between such periods is just 66 days. This prolonged period without an altcoin season may suggest a shift in the market is imminent.
However, this article does not represent investment advice; the content and materials featured are for educational purposes only.
References:
[1] Altcoin Season Index [2] CoinMarketCap [3] CoinDesk [4] Bloomberg [5] Investopedia
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