Could it possibly be that the value of a dollar might drop lower than three rubles?

Shifting Tides: A Look at Currency Fluctuations

Could it possibly be that the value of a dollar might drop lower than three rubles?

The current exchange rate at the National Bank as of May 8th is 3.06 rubles per dollar.

The primary factor driving the fluctuations in the Belarusian ruble's value, according to BEROC analyst Anastasia Luzhina, is the strengthening of the Russian ruble. At the beginning of the year, one dollar was worth 113 Russian rubles, but by the end of March, it had dropped to 83 rubles.

An additional factor is the dollar's depreciation against the euro. The euro has depreciated less significantly than the dollar. For instance, at the start of 2025, one euro was worth 3.62 rubles, but now it's 3.4 rubles. Meanwhile, the dollar, which was valued at 3.47 rubles at the beginning of the year, is now worth 3.06 rubles.

Luzhina attributes the dollar's depreciation on the world market to investors' responses to Donald Trump's policies.

"Investors saw risks in the policies Trump was pursuing regarding tariffs. However, it's now clear that some of his more aggressive statements aren't being implemented, so the dollar's depreciation has slowed, although it has fallen by about 10 percent against the euro during this period," stated Luzhina.

Interestingly, the currency basket's rate has hardly changed: while the ruble strengthens against the dollar, it weakens against the Russian ruble.

Looking at the broader economy, Luzhina anticipates the current strengthening of the ruble against the dollar to be temporary.

The Course May Change

The future trajectory of the Russian ruble, which also impacts the Belarusian ruble, hinges on two key factors: export issues and geopolitical factors.

"Russia's export scenario is currently positive, with imports decreasing while exports remain at last year's level. Investor expectations of at least partial sanctions relief are also favorably influencing the ruble's course. So, we're seeing a mix of geopolitical and economic factors that prop up the Russian currency," Luzhina explains.

However, there's a potential risk that the Russian ruble could start losing its strength by the end of the year, mainly due to low oil prices.

"If oil production volumes increase, oil prices will continue to drop, which will negatively impact Russia's export figures. However, the effect of cheaper oil on the currency isn't immediate, so this impact will be felt delayed."

Will the Dollar Fall Below 3 Rubles?

Although Luzhina doesn't completely rule out the possibility of the dollar rate dropping below three Belarusian rubles, this wouldn't be a prolonged trend.

As the year comes to a close, it's likely that the ruble will weaken due to a strong ruble encouraging imports. Given the low prices of energy resources, this could lead to a gradual depreciation of the Russian ruble, and consequently, the Belarusian ruble.

Local Belarusian factors could also play a role.

"In late 2021 and early 2022, Belarus' external trade situation deteriorated. While this hasn't been critical for the currency market yet, the negative balance is growing. If the negative balance continues to rise, it could worsen the currency market's situation," Luzhina adds.

Additional Insights:

• Risk Factors for the Russian Ruble: Commodity prices, particularly oil, are a significant risk for the Russian ruble's stability. If oil prices fall significantly, Russia's export revenues could suffer, and the ruble might weaken as a result.
• Speculative and Geopolitical Elements: The current strength of the ruble has been driven in part by speculative demand and geopolitical factors, which analysts do not see as sustainable in the long term.
• Impact of Seasonal Demand: The summer months may temporarily exert downward pressure on the ruble due to increased foreign currency demand linked to tourism.
• Protectionist Policies and Global Economic Slowdown: The Trump administration's protectionist trade policies and the looming risk of global economic slowdown pose risks to Russia's budget and export revenues, indirectly pressuring the ruble.
• High Interest Rates and Inflation Control: While high interest rates typically support currency strength, any future easing or economic shocks could reverse this effect.

More Reading:

• EPAM and Wargaming Paid Minimum Taxes in Lithuania for Over Two Years
• Dollar Drops to 3.0 Rubles on Minsk Exchange
• Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Set New Record

1. Despite Luzhina's anticipated temporary strengthening of the ruble against the dollar, she suggests that the dollar might fall below 3 rubles as the year ends.
2. The negative balance in Belarus' external trade situation could contribute to a worst-case scenario for the currency market, especially if it continues to grow.
3. Investors' reactions to Donald Trump's policies, specifically his proposals on tariffs, have significantly influenced the dollar's depreciation against the euro.
4. Influencing the Belarusian ruble's value, the depreciation of the dollar against the euro has occurred alongside the strengthening of the Russian ruble, making personal-finance investments a more complex matter.

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