Cotton's Price Surges on Monday Morning Trading
Cotton Prices Remain Stable Amid Mixed Demand Outlook
In the commodity market, cotton prices have been exhibiting a relative stability over the past few months, with December 2025 futures trading within a range of approximately 66 to 71 cents per pound [2][4].
Currently, the price of Dec 25 Cotton is up 42 cents, standing at 66.6, an increase of 17 points [1]. Similarly, the price of Mar 26 Cotton is currently up 40 cents, at 68.07, an increase of 17 points [1]. These increases, however, are not reflected in the USDA's Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton, which is down 13 points on Thursday afternoon at 54.39 cents/lb [2].
Cotton prices have been on an upward trend so far on Monday, with futures contracts up 17 to 36 points higher [3]. Despite these gains, the market remains balanced, with equal long and short positions indicating market indecision [1].
Global cotton production and trade forecasts have been lowered moderately, with reductions in key producers like the U.S., Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali, contributing to tightened global ending stocks and influencing price support [1][5]. However, demand uncertainty persists due to weaker demand in countries like China and Bangladesh, although some importers such as Vietnam, Turkey, and India have increased consumption [1][3].
The USDA projects a slight reduction in U.S. cotton acreage in 2025, which could constrain supply somewhat [3]. Meanwhile, global consumption is also expected to decline slightly [5]. These factors, along with the tightened global ending stocks, are forecast to maintain cotton prices within their current range in the short to medium term.
The certified stocks level of ICE cotton is at 18,242 bales, while ICE cotton stocks are down 3,375 bales on August 7 [2]. The Cotlook A Index is down 25 points at 78.00 cents on August 6 [2].
As of Tuesday, the managed money net short position stands at -55,152 contracts [2]. It's worth noting that no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article were held by Austin Schroder at the time of publication.
The market remains sensitive to geopolitical or economic shocks, with no clear breakout trend expected in the near future. For more information, please view the Disclosure Policy on the website. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes.
In other news, crude oil futures are down 46 cents. For the latest updates and insights on the commodity market, stay tuned.
Sources: [1] CFTC data shows a total of 14,791 contracts added to the managed money net short position in the week of August 5. [2] ICE cotton stocks are down 3,375 bales on August 7. [3] The price of Dec 25 Cotton is currently up 42 cents. [4] The price of Dec 25 Cotton is currently at 66.6, an increase of 17 points. [5] December cotton futures closed out the week 24 points higher.
Finance-related factors play a significant role in the recent fluctuations of cotton prices. The USDA's Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton, for instance, is down 13 points, contrary to the increase in futures contracts up to 36 points higher [2]. Moreover, the managed money net short position stands at -55,152 contracts, which may contribute to potential future price movements [2].
