ConocoPhillips stock struggles despite analyst optimism and Trump’s oil play
ConocoPhillips (COP), a major US oil and gas producer, has faced a challenging year in the stock market. Over the past 52 weeks, its shares dropped 4%, lagging behind both the S&P 500 and the energy sector’s wider performance. Yet, recent political developments and analyst forecasts suggest a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook for the company.
The company’s stock saw a brief boost on January 5, climbing 2.6% in a single day. This rise followed an announcement by former US President Donald Trump, who revealed plans to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry—a move that could impact global oil supply and pricing.
Despite short-term volatility, COP has a history of meeting expectations. It has beaten analysts’ earnings forecasts in each of the last four quarters. However, the next quarterly report may show weaker results. Experts predict earnings of $1.22 per share, a sharp 38.4% drop compared to the same period last year. Looking further ahead, the full-year outlook remains subdued. Analysts forecast an earnings per share (EPS) of $6.39 for the current fiscal year, marking an 18% decline from 2024. The downward trend is expected to continue, with projections of a 16.4% fall in EPS to $5.34 by fiscal 2026. Market sentiment on COP leans slightly positive. Out of 28 analysts tracking the stock, 17 recommend a 'Strong Buy', four suggest a 'Moderate Buy', and seven advise holding. The overall consensus stands at a 'Moderate Buy'. The average price target of $111.56 also implies a potential upside of 14.4% from its current trading level.
ConocoPhillips faces a period of declining earnings, with forecasts pointing to double-digit drops in the coming years. Still, the stock retains a moderately bullish rating among analysts, and its recent price target suggests room for growth. The company’s next moves will likely depend on broader energy market shifts and geopolitical developments.
