Collector-owed debt drops under 200,000 Russian rubles mark.
Russsian Debt Trends in 2025: An Unsettling Shift
The casual, laid-back version of your question on Russian debt trends is here! Let's dive right in.
In what was thought to be a downward spiral, 2025 seems to have introduced a perplexing turn of events in the world of Russian debt. Instead of a continued decrease, the credit debt situation shows signs of an uptick and even quality deterioration.
According to the Bank of Russia's Financial Stability Review, there's been a contraction in unsecured consumer loans by 1.4% in Q1 2025. However, this hasn't stemmed the tide of overdue loans, with the share of loans overdue for more than 90 days reaching 0.9% by April 1, 2025 – a significant increase from 0.5% a year earlier. This suggests a worsening servicing quality among borrowers.
Problem loans have also seen a surge, increasing by nearly 200 billion roubles (approximately $2.5 billion) in Q1 2025. That's about a 2 billion roubles daily increase in problem loans!
Interestingly, household mortgage debt has increased slightly, with mortgage loans issued rising by 13% in April 2025 to 290 billion roubles, and the mortgage portfolio on banks’ balance sheets growing by 0.5% in April after 0.2% in March. However, the average mortgage rate for market programs decreased to 26.8% by the end of April 2025, a welcome drop of 1.7 percentage points since March.
The portion of income households allocate to servicing loans has decreased to 10.1% in Q1 2025 from 11.3% a year ago, thanks to rising incomes. However, the quality of loans has taken a hit, specifically unsecured loans issued at high rates to less creditworthy borrowers from mid-2024.
As for external debt, Russia's foreign debt as of January 1, 2024, was about $318 billion. While this figure precedes the 2025 data specifically about household and consumer debt trends within Russia, it's crucial to bear in mind as we monitor the evolving situation.
In essence, while some segments like unsecured consumer loans have contracted slightly, the overall picture pains a picture of an increase in problem loans and credit debt amounts, signaling a potentially growing debt burden. Household mortgage debt has seen a slight increase, and the deterioration in loan servicing quality indicates a rising credit risk within the general debt portfolio. Stay tuned for updates on this developing story!
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- Despite a contraction in unsecured consumer loans, the share of overdue loans has significantly increased, indicating a potential rise in personal-finance difficulties among Russian borrowers.
- The surge in problem loans, amounting to nearly 200 billion roubles in Q1 2025, suggests an increasing business and personal-finance risk within the Russian debt sector.
