Central Bank of Turkey to Unveil Third Inflation Survey on August 14th
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is set to reveal its third inflation report for 2025 on August 14. This report comes after a decline in inflation that has extended the country's disinflation streak to a 14th consecutive month.
In July, the CBRT resumed interest rate cuts after a brief pause in April. The inflation rate in Türkiye declined to 33.52% in July, marking a new low since November 2021. In response, the CBRT lowered its policy rate by 300 basis points to 43%, indicating a potential shift toward a more accommodative stance.
The key points of the CBRT's third inflation report for 2025 include a projected decline in inflation to 24% by the end of 2025, with a forecast range of 19-29%. Inflation has sharply decreased from 71.6% in June 2024 to around 35.1% in August 2025, marking the longest sustained decline in several years.
However, the disinflation trend remains fragile due to challenges like a depreciating Turkish lira, past political pressures affecting the Central Bank’s credibility, and the need for structural reforms to support fiscal consolidation and economic growth.
The report briefing, led by Governor Fatih Karahan, is scheduled for an in-person event with live Turkish and English coverage. The presentation will take place at the CBRT's Istanbul Financial Center. An English translation will be simultaneously available on the CBRT's official website.
The report is anticipated to provide more detailed insight into the inflation outlook and how monetary policy might evolve in view of ongoing economic and fiscal conditions. It will also clarify inflation trajectory assumptions, including the effects of government price controls and tax adjustments, which are expected to be temporary.
Further analysis will be given on risks stemming from exchange rate movements and external demand trends. The report will assess the balance between continuing monetary easing to support growth and maintaining tight enough conditions to anchor inflation expectations. It will also comment on structural reforms needed to consolidate fiscal discipline and enhance the Central Bank’s credibility to sustain longer-term price stability.
Governor Karahan reaffirmed the bank's commitment to the disinflation process during the May meeting. Members of the press and economists planning to attend the event are required to notify the bank by 2 p.m. on Wednesday, August 13. The event will be broadcast live in Turkish via the CBRT's official accounts on X (formerly Twitter) and YouTube.
This release is closely watched for signals on the Central Bank’s policy path, especially given expectations for more rate cuts toward a policy rate of 35% by year-end and inflation risks in the coming months. The CBRT's reserves dropped $2.9B after a five-week streak of gains.
In summary, the report highlights ongoing disinflation progress and monetary easing, but stresses the fragile nature of price stability without stronger structural reforms and careful policy management.
- Governor Erdogan, who leads the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), will present the bank's third inflation report for 2025 in Istanbul, Turkey, on August 14.
- The Turkish finance sector and business community will closely watch the CBRT's third inflation report for insights on the inflation outlook, monetary policy evolution, and the potential effects of government price controls and tax adjustments on inflation trajectory assumptions.
- Despite the decline in inflation and the ensuing 14-month disinflation streak, the fragility of price stability in Turkiye remains, as challenges such as a depreciating Turkish lira, past political pressures affecting the Central Bank’s credibility, and the need for structural reforms persist.
