Bitcoin's mood towards potential price surge decreases, as the cryptocurrency remains stable according to Santiment's analysis.
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The recent decline in altseason social engagement, despite July's strong catalysts, is mainly due to a drop in social volume and fading altseason hopes[1]. This cool-off in interest could be attributed to market corrections or cautious sentiment, as Bitcoin remains steady.
The approach of altseason, as suggested by various indices, is influenced by several factors:
- Bitcoin dominance decline: Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped from around 65% to 61%, signalling a shift of capital towards Ethereum and altcoins, which is a classical precursor for altseason[2][4][5].
- Capital rotation and resistance levels: About 75% of altcoins are sitting at key resistance levels, with early signs of capital rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins[3]. This phase is critical in determining whether a strong systemic altseason will manifest or just fragmented, short-lived rallies.
- Market technicals and trader behavior: Increased Ethereum ETF inflows, a surge in Ethereum futures trading surpassing Bitcoin’s since 2022, and bullish divergences in small-cap altcoins indicate growing accumulation[2]. These technical indicators support the case for an upcoming altseason.
- Historical cyclical patterns: Past cycles show that Bitcoin consolidation phases or dominance declines often precede broad altcoin rallies, especially in September and October, with momentum building over the summer months[2][3].
- Social sentiment and market narrative: Although July’s social engagement waned, recent commentary (early August) and social buzz on platforms like X show renewed excitement around altseason as Bitcoin dominance falls and Ethereum rallies[5].
In summary, despite a temporary social volume decline after July, the combination of Bitcoin dominance falling, capital rotation into altcoins, accumulation signals, and historical patterns all indicate that an altseason is approaching, though the timing and strength may depend on whether key resistance levels are overcome and broader market conditions remain favourable[1][2][3][4][5].
It's worth noting that Bitcoin's market share fell to a six-month low on July 21, but it has been uptrending again since. Some analysts are still predicting a similar altcoin rally as previous bull market cycles, while others are more cautious, stating that without a Bitcoin breakout and renewed risk appetite, altseason remains on pause[6].
Meanwhile, the hype isn't even close to the first quarter of 2024 when Bitcoin ETFs launched, according to the analyst[7]. All three indexes report that the best-performing altcoins over the past month are memecoins[8].
[1] https://www.santiment.net/charts/altcoin-social-volume [2] https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BTCUSD&interval=1D&timeframe=P3Y [3] https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/market-data/altseason-index [4] https://www.bitget.com/en/altseason-index [5] https://twitter.com/santimentfeed [6] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/28/bitcoin-and-ethereum-rise-as-altcoin-season-falters/ [7] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/28/bitcoin-and-ethereum-rise-as-altcoin-season-falters/ [8] https://coinmarketcap.com/alts/altseason-index
- The crypto market shows signs of an upcoming altseason, as Bitcoin's dominance declines and investors shift capital towards Ethereum, altcoins, and other digital assets, a classical precursor for altseason.
- The blockchain technology space is experiencing a phase where capital is beginning to rotate from Bitcoin into altcoins, with 75% of altcoins sitting at key resistance levels, which is critical in determining whether a strong systemic altseason will manifest.
- Technological indicators such as increased Ethereum ETF inflows, a surge in Ethereum futures trading surpassing Bitcoin’s since 2022, and bullish divergences in small-cap altcoins indicate growing accumulation and support the case for an upcoming altseason.
- Despite a temporary drop in social volume and fading altseason hopes, finance analysts predict that the Altcoin rally may resemble previous bull market cycles, especially over the summer months, in line with historical cyclical patterns.
