Bitcoin call option demand reaches a new peak following the election
In a notable shift for Bitcoin (BTC), the 30-day skew of Bitcoin options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has flipped from a slight premium on downside protection (put options) to a 5% premium for upside calls. This trend reflects a growing bullish sentiment among options traders, as they position for further Bitcoin price appreciation.
The recent surge in Bitcoin's price, which saw it break above a significant seven-year trendline and reach a new all-time high above $109,000, has been accompanied by a stabilisation in implied volatility (IV) for BTC options. The IV has remained rangebound between 26%-35%, down from previous highs, suggesting that while the market anticipates possible upward movement, overall volatility expectations have somewhat stabilised.
This bullish trend in options coincides with a strong institutional accumulation environment. Institutions continue to drive this rally, with net long futures positions nearing $100 million and major holders increasing their BTC exposure despite some cooling in short-term momentum.
However, traders remain cautious as open interest on CME Bitcoin options expiring late July clusters both in very high calls ($130K-$135K) and in fairly deep puts ($85K-$90K), indicating market uncertainty with conviction in both a bullish breakout and a potential sharp downside in response to broader macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve rate decisions.
Despite this uncertainty, the bullish options skew has bolstered Bitcoin’s rally, supporting price gains beyond $110,000. Technical and institutional factors reinforce this advance, with Bitcoin recently breaking above a significant seven-year trendline, viewed as a bullish technical signal targeting $130,000-$138,000 in the short term.
In the broader crypto market, inflows into Ethereum-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have also been strong. On January 21, ETH-ETF inflows reached $74.4 million, maintaining a positive trend for the fifth straight day, totaling $325.8 million. The top inflows in ETH-ETFs come from ETHE by Grayscale ($4.61B) and ETHA by BlackRock ($3.91B). Overall assets under management (AUM) in these products have grown to $123.6 billion.
Experts predict that by 2025, investment advisors will increase their positions in Bitcoin- and Ethereum-based ETFs by more than 50%. Since their launch, ETH-ETFs have accumulated $2.74 billion in total and have $12.1 billion in AUM.
In other news, President Donald Trump did not mention forming a "national Bitcoin reserve," a pledge from his campaign, in his inauguration speech. This lack of mention may have contributed to a wave of profit-taking the next day.
In summary, the 30-day skew trend toward bullish calls has bolstered Bitcoin’s rally, supporting price gains beyond $110,000, with technical and institutional factors reinforcing this advance. Nonetheless, mixed open interest and macro uncertainties imply the potential for sizable moves in either direction during July and Q3 2025.
Investors are increasingly looking to both Bitcoin and Ethereum for potential growth opportunities in the finance sector, with strong institutional accumulation driving Bitcoin's rally and inflows into Ethereum-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) remaining strong. In particular, experts predict that by 2025, investment advisors will significantly increase their positions in Bitcoin- and Ethereum-based ETFs.
Concurrently, the surge in Bitcoin's price has prompted some traders to consider diversifying their investments, leading them to explore the potential of Ethereum as well, given its growing presence in the finance industry.
