Anticipated Turkish Economy Forecast to Exceed $1.4 Trillion by 2025, as Announced by the Trade Minister
In a recent event hosted by the Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkey (DEIK) in Istanbul, Trade Minister Omer Bolat shared exciting news about the country's economy. Over the past decade, Turkey has ranked among the fastest-growing economies globally, and this trend is set to continue in 2025.
The economy grew by 2% in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period last year. This growth is particularly noteworthy as it comes amidst a global economic slowdown. One of the key factors contributing to this growth is the country's exports, which reached a historic high of $269.4 billion over the past 12 months.
On March 28, 2025, Turkey's exports exceeded $2 billion in a single day, a testament to the robustness of the economy. Trade Minister Bolat also projected that Turkey's GDP will rise to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2025, up from $1.32 trillion in 2024.
The growth rate of the Turkish economy slowed from the 3% pace recorded in the previous quarter. However, this is not cause for concern, as it is a common occurrence in many economies. The slowdown is attributed to the normalisation of economic activity following the pandemic.
The expansion of the Turkish economy by 3.2% in 2024 and the projected rise to $1.4 trillion GDP by the end of 2025 are significant achievements. They are the result of a combination of macroeconomic stabilization, structural reforms, a booming e-commerce sector, strong industrial production, and improved investor confidence.
Macroeconomic stabilization efforts, such as the government's aim for a 3.1% budget deficit target in 2025 and the stabilization of public finances via an $8.8 billion external debt issuance in Q2 2025, have played a crucial role. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) focus on exchange rate stability and liquidity management, combined with a series of policy rate hikes, has helped reduce inflation and attract foreign capital.
Structural reforms in sectors like agriculture, energy, and infrastructure aim to strengthen productivity and business confidence, essential for sustained export growth and GDP expansion. The rapid expansion of Turkey's e-commerce sector, which reached over 3 trillion Turkish lira in market size in 2024, is another major engine of economic growth and export competitiveness.
Strong industrial production and export capacity, supported by capacity utilization of 74.1%, have also contributed to Turkey's economic growth. The manufacturing sector supports export growth, helped by strong tourism revenues and favourable euro/dollar parity.
In the first seven months of 2025, merchandise exports rose 5.2% year-over-year to $156.4 billion. Exports in July 2025 surpassed the $25 billion monthly export mark for the first time. The sectors contributing the most to Turkey's exports include automotive shipments ($37.5 billion), chemicals and energy ($35 billion), agricultural products ($32.5 billion), and textiles and clothing ($32 billion).
Turkey's share of global exports has climbed to 1.07%, reflecting the country's increasing significance in the global economy. This impressive growth is a testament to the effective economic policies implemented by the government under President Erdoğan's administration, which has led to an average annual rate of 5.3% growth over the past 22 years under the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).
- The growth of Turkey's economy is expected to continue in 2025, with the economy growing by 2% in the first half of the year, despite a global economic slowdown.
- Trade Minister Bolat projected that Turkey's GDP will rise to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2025, up from $1.32 trillion in 2024.
- The growth rate of the Turkish economy slowed from the 3% pace recorded in the previous quarter, but this is attributed to the normalization of economic activity following the pandemic.
- Turkey's exports reached a historic high of $269.4 billion over the past 12 months, and on March 28, 2025, Turkey's exports exceeded $2 billion in a single day.
