Adjusted dollar forecast: potential increase in currency exchange value
Exchange rate forecasts for 2025-2026 in Kazakhstan have been revised upward due to persistent external economic uncertainties and volatility in the foreign exchange market. The median forecast for 2025 now stands at 514 tenge per dollar, an increase from the previous prediction of 510 tenge. Likewise, for 2026, the forecast has been raised to 540 tenge per dollar, up from 532 tenge. Expectations for 2027 remain unchanged at 550 tenge per dollar.
In addition, revised forecasts for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflect a consistent rise in inflation expectations since the start of the year. For 2025, the forecast has been increased from 10.6% to 10.7%. For 2026, it has been revised to 9.4% from 9%, and for 2027, it has been raised to 6.8% from the initial projection of 6.1%. The increased pessimism in respondents' assessments suggests a prolonged maintenance of inflationary pressure on the forecast horizon.
The National Bank has factors influencing inflation, leading to an increase in the forecast for the base rate. Compared to the previous survey, the median estimates for the end of 2025 have been increased from 15.9% to 16.3%, for 2026, they have been raised from 14.3% to 14.5%, and for 2027, they have been increased from 11.5% to 12%.
Scenario expectations for oil prices have been revised downward for the entire forecast horizon. For 2025, the median estimate for the price of Brent oil has been reduced from 75.0 to 69.3 dollars per barrel. For 2026 and 2027, a stabilization of prices is expected at levels of 66 and 66.2 dollars per barrel, respectively.
The forecast for Kazakhstan's economy in 2025 has been improved from 4.7% to 5%. Meanwhile, expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively.
Respondents estimate the average growth rates of potential GDP over a 5-year horizon at 4.2%. In terms of exports and imports, the analysts' forecasts have been revised due to external factors and updated price assumptions in the oil market. Exports forecasts for 2025 have been reduced from 92.2 to 91.1 billion dollars, and for 2027, they have been reduced from 93.6 to 92.6 billion dollars. For 2026, the reduction is more pronounced, from 94.7 to 90.6 billion dollars. The forecasts for the volume of imports for 2025 and 2027 have been revised downward, with estimates for 2025 and 2027 being adjusted to 75.1 and 77.2 billion dollars, respectively. For 2026, the forecast has improved slightly, from 76.0 to 76.1 billion dollars.
Previously, it was reported that Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover showed negative trends in the first quarter of 2025. The reasons behind these revisions and their implications are multifaceted, influenced by factors such as economic stability, global economic conditions, commodity prices, economic growth, and strategic partnerships. These factors will continue to shape the economic outlook for Kazakhstan in the coming years.
In light of the revised forecasts for Kazakhstan's economy, I am considering adjusting my investing strategies in finance to account for the anticipated higher inflation rates and potential volatility. The increased pessimism in respondents' assessments suggests a prolonged maintenance of inflationary pressure, which may impact my investments in Kazakhstan in the forecast horizon.
