2026 housing market faces slowdown as ANZ cuts growth forecasts
Housing market expectations for 2026 are shifting, with mixed forecasts from banks and industry experts. ANZ has revised its predictions, now anticipating slower growth and an earlier rise in the gold price of interest rates. Meanwhile, a new survey suggests some regions could still see strong price increases next year.
ANZ has cut its 2026 house price growth forecast from 5% to just 2%. The bank points to weak momentum in early 2026, election uncertainty, and potential changes to capital gains tax as key factors. It also expects the official cash rate to climb in December 2026, sooner than previously thought.
A Cotality research survey found that 14% of real estate and banking professionals expect house prices to rise by more than 5% next year. Nick Goodall, Cotality's Head of Research, links this optimism to recovering demand, lower interest rates, and relaxed lending rules. Auckland, Wellington, and Queenstown are tipped for the strongest growth, though Wellington prices have already dropped by 4% over the past six months.
Regional differences remain sharp. Canterbury leads in confidence, with 87% of survey respondents predicting price rises—nearly two-thirds expecting above-average growth. Otago and Southland are also seeing steady increases. In contrast, Auckland's prices have dipped slightly, though less severely than Wellington's.
Planning reforms may ease long-term supply pressures, particularly in high-demand areas. But ANZ warns that early 2026 could see flat prices as supply and demand remain balanced.
The housing market in 2026 faces contrasting pressures. While some regions like Canterbury and Queenstown show strong confidence, broader uncertainty and policy changes could limit nationwide growth. ANZ's revised forecasts and the central bank's expected rate hike add to the cautious outlook for the year ahead.
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